三北防护林生态系统水文过程演变归因及生态脆弱性研究

项目名称： 三北防护林生态系统水文过程演变归因及生态脆弱性研究

项目编号： No.41471019

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 谢先红

作者单位： 北京师范大学

项目金额： 84万元

中文摘要： 规模宏大的三北防护林体系工程已经持续建设三十多年，但是其生态水文效应还没有明确结论，在国内乃至国际上争议颇大。本项目通过发展陆面水文模型和数据同化方法，结合遥感和地面综合观测数据，从区域尺度上探讨三北地区水循环演变机制和生态脆弱性。主要研究内容包括：分析水文环境时空演变格局以及植被生长情势；基于发展的水文模型和多源数据同化方法，诊断近六十年来水文系统变化的主控因素，量化植树造林工程的水文效应；考虑未来多种气候变化情景，探讨三北地区水循环的发展趋势；分析不同林草系统的耗水特性，评估生态系统的水分胁迫和生态脆弱性。从而阐明变化环境下水循环的响应机制，揭示大面积森林覆盖对区域水循环的调控过程。研究成果将促进陆面水文模型、遥感和数据同化方法在森林水文学中的应用，为大尺度森林水文过程的研究提供新的思路，并为评估三北防护林工程的生态水文效应和后期的合理实施提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 三北防护林；水文模型；遥感监测；区域水循环；数据同化

英文摘要： The Three-North Shelter Forest Program is the largest ecological reforestation /afforestation program in the world. Although it has made great achievements since its initiative in 1978, it raises a heated and worldwide debate as its eco-hydrological effect is not as notable as expected. To reveal its eco-hydrological effect, this study attempts to investigate the changes in the hydrological cycle and the eco-hydrological vulnerability in the Three-North region by land surface modeling and data assimilation with remote sensing and ground-based measured data sets. The focuses of this study include: (1) Discussing the spatial-temporal variations of hydrological environment and the vegetation growth; (2) Diagnosing the attribution of the changes of the hydrologic system and quantifying the hydrological effect of the reforestation/afforestation based on the developed macroscale hydrological model and data assimilation schemes; (3) Predicting the future hydrological scenarios in future conditioned on the climate scenarios from four general circulation models; And (4) assessing the soil moisture stress of ecological system with various forest and grass vegetations. The aims of this study are to elaborate on the hydrological response to environment changes and to reveal the hydrological effect of the forest coverage. The results are expected to foster the application of land surface models, the remote sensing technology and data assimilation schemes in forest hydrology since, as demonstrated in this study, these strategies are useful tools to characterize the hydrological processes in a forest system. Moreover, this study will be valuable for the comprehensive evaluation on the Three-North Shelter Forest Program and the implementation of the reforestation/afforestation practice in future.

英文关键词： Three-North Shelter Forest Program;Hydrologic model;Remote sensing;Regional hydrologic cycle;Data assimilation