基于动力学建模的突发传染病应急预案优化配置

项目名称： 基于动力学建模的突发传染病应急预案优化配置

项目编号： No.11201434

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 李桂花

作者单位： 中北大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 利用动力学方法对突发传染病流行规模、持续时间、预测发展趋势等的研究已有大量工作，但对疾病爆发早期风险评估、防治预案中涉及的资源优化配置和最优控制策略，利用动力学方法进行研究还未见到。为此，本项目考虑疾病爆发早期涉及的医疗资源，如医疗设备、医务人员数量、医院的容纳量，以及早期的控制策略（包括隔离、有效的疫苗）等因素，根据具体疾病的病原学与流行病学机理建立传染病动力学模型，分析风险因素并对其进行定量评估；研究不同医疗资源制约条件对疾病流行的影响，包括病人等待治疗时间以及期间造成的传染和死亡，对疾病最终规模、高峰到达时间影响，以及各种控制策略的有效性评估；研究模型的阈值、稳定性及分支等动力学现象，结合最优化理论，给出资源优化配置方案及最优控制策略。将所得结果或者方法应用于SARS中，利用实证数据进行验证。该研究成果将为传染病动力学模型提供新的理论和方法。

中文关键词： 传染病模型；医疗资源；动力学性态；；

英文摘要： There have been many literatures to study the prevalent, duration and forecast the development trend for sudden epidemic diseases.using dynamics method. However，no one applied dynamical theory to study early risk assessment on disease outbreaks, optimal allocation of resources involved in the prevention and control plan and the optimal control strategy. For this reason, in the project, we will build epidemic dynamical model according to the etiology of specific diseases and epidemiological mechanism where it is considered health care resources, such as medical equipment, the number of medical personnel, hospital capacity and the early control strategy (including the isolation and effective vaccine) and other factors during disease outbreak early. Furthermore, analyze risk factors and evaluate quantitatively, study impact on different medical resource constraints for the prevalence of disease. The impact includes waiting for treatment time, the number of infected and death in the process, the final scale of disease, the peak arriving time and assessment of the effectiveness of various control strategies. Then the threshold value, the conditions of stability and bifurcation and other dynamical phenomena will be analyzed. Furthermore, Using the optimization theory a program of optimal allocation of resources and th

英文关键词： Epidemic model；Medical resources；Dynamical behaviors；；