基于社会网络的多菌株传染病动力学模型研究

项目名称： 基于社会网络的多菌株传染病动力学模型研究

项目编号： No.11301491

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 张菊平

作者单位： 中北大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 疾病传播在群体中发生时，往往不是单一发生的传播，而是以多菌株混合感染形式出现，不同的菌株在个体接触网络中可能会遵循不同或相似的传播路径，因此，这就需要研究社会网络下的多菌株传染病传播规律，到目前为止，基于社会网络的多菌株传染病网络动力学行为研究很少。为此，本项目将基于社会网络建立多菌株传染病动力学模型，考虑有无交叉免疫、重复感染、共同免疫、人体对病原体产生相应的抗体以抵御再次感染等情形，给出疾病传播阈值的计算公式，研究模型稳定性、分支等动力学性态，研究最优控制策略，将所得成果应用到具体疾病网络模型中，利用已有的数据，对模型参数进行估计、优化和敏感性分析，进而进行预测、预警及干预措施的评估，其研究成果可以丰富传染病动力学研究方法，完善复杂网络传染病节点动力学模型的基本理论。

中文关键词： 社会网络；多菌株；传染病模型；阈值；稳定性

英文摘要： When the spread of the disease occurs in groups, epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. The different strains may follow a different or similar propagation path in individual contact networks. Therefore, we need study the law of propagation of multi-strain of infectious diseases based on social networks. So far, there have been very few dynamics researches of multi-strain infectious diseases based on social networks. Therefore, this project will construct multi-strain infectious diseases dynamics models based on the social networks, consider the effect of cross immue,super- infection，common immune and the human body to produce antibodies to pathogens to resist re-infection, give the calculating formula of disease spread threshold, study the model stability, bifurcation and other dynamical behavior,study optimal control strategies, apply research results into concrete disease network model, estimate and optimize model parameters using existing data, and then evaluate predictions, early warnings and intervention measures. The research results can enrich approaches to infectious disease dynamics and perfect basic theory of complex network infectious disease node dynamics models.

英文关键词： Social networks；Multi-strain；Epidemic model；Threshold；Stability