大城市中等收入群体出行选择行为的不确定性决策机理研究

项目名称： 大城市中等收入群体出行选择行为的不确定性决策机理研究

项目编号： No.51478112

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 胡晓健

作者单位： 东南大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 决策是人大脑复杂思维活动的产物。个体的出行选择行为受到诸多因素的影响和制约，包括性格、气质、兴趣、习惯与收入等主体因素，以及社会、文化、经济、政策等环境因素。诸多影响因素之间存在复杂的交互作用，对个体出行的决策结果有不确定性影响。为此，本项目结合不确定决策理论的研究成果，以我国大城市未来机动车出行主要群体--中等收入群体作为研究对象，从决策数据调查及其规范化处理、子集影响因素的决策过程细化分析、出行选择行为的不确定性决策模型研究、交通需求管理（TDM）政策下的出行选择行为预测等方面开展研究工作。本项目旨在研究出行选择行为的不确定性，构建其不确定性决策模型，从新的角度揭示出行选择行为的决策机理，为城市交通管理部门科学制定TDM政策提供理论依据。

中文关键词： 交通需求管理；出行行为；出行决策；不确定性；中等收入

英文摘要： Decisions are products of complex conceptual work from human brain. Individual travel choice behavior could be influenced and restricted by many factors, including subject factors, such as personality, temperament, interests, habits and income, as well as environmental factors which comprise social, cultural, economic and political factors. There should be complex interrelationships among them which would make uncertainty on the results of individual travel decisions. Therefore, this project takes middle-income groups as research subjects, which would be the Chinese major motorized trip groups in the future, based on the achievements of uncertain decision theory. The research work is carried out gradually and involves investigation and standardized of the decision-making data, analysis of the factors' subsets affecting decision-making process, uncertainty decision-making models of travel choice behavior, travel behavior choice forecast based on the Transportation Demand Management. The project is aiming at revealing the decision-making mechanism of travel choice behavior from a new perspective and providing a theoretical basis for the Transportation Demand Management policies, by the study of uncertain in travel choice behavior and establishment of the travel choice behavior's uncertainty decision-making models.

英文关键词： TDM;travel choice behavior;decision;uncertainty;medium income