群体偏好的敏感性度量方法研究和群决策方法的可实施性评价

项目名称： 群体偏好的敏感性度量方法研究和群决策方法的可实施性评价

项目编号： No.61773173

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2018

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 赵勇

作者单位： 华中科技大学

项目金额： 16万元

中文摘要： 敏感性是决策分析和系统分析的一项重要内容。目前，关于决策敏感性的研究主要集中在风险决策和多属性决策领域，有关群决策或社会选择敏感性的研究很少，尤其是定量分析。本项目针对一些经典、常用的群决策或社会选择方法，探讨基于夹角测度的群体偏好或群决策结果的敏感性概念、度量方法、算法公式及应用等。与基于距离测度的敏感性度量相比，该方法具有内生的尺度不变性、可公度性、几何直观性及Pareto性等特征，适用于基数或序数偏好、确定型或随机型偏好、以及“与”“或”组合的复合偏好等情况，且可用于局部和全局敏感性的定量分析。进一步以此为工具，借助敏感性和稳定性间的内在联系，在一定的行为假设下对那些常用群决策或社会选择方法的可实施性进行比较和评价。本项目的研究对于决策的科学性与民主性探讨、群决策理论的深化、以及运筹学的发展具有学术与应用价值。

中文关键词： 群体偏好；夹角测度；敏感性；干扰；决策分析

英文摘要： A sensitivity analysis is an important topic in decision analyses and system analyses. Present researches on decision sensitivities mainly focus on risk decision-making and multi-attribute decision-making, while researches on sensitivities of group decision-making or social choice are very few. Even it might be said that no one has explored the quantitative sensitivity of group decision-making or social choice. For some classic and common group decision-making methods or social choice methods, this project explores concepts, measure methods, algorithm formulas and applications about the sensitivities of group preferences or decisions based on measures of inclined angles. Comparing with sensitivity measurements based on distance measures, this method has some endogenous characteristics such as scale invariances, commensurabilities, geometric intuitions and Pareto. And it applies to global or local sensitivity analyses based on cardinal or ordinal preferences, deterministic or random preferences, and some complex preferences with “and” and “or” logical relations. Using this method as a tool, this project investigates and appraises the implementability of the group decision-making methods or the social choice methods by means of intrinsic linkages of sensitivities and stabilities. This project has theoretical and practical values for exploring scientificity-democracy of decisions, deepening group decision theories and developing operations researches.

英文关键词： Group preference;Measure of an inclined angle;Sensitivity;Disturbance;Decision analysis