动态环境下决策单元效率评价方法与应用研究

项目名称： 动态环境下决策单元效率评价方法与应用研究

项目编号： No.71471053

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 吴华清

作者单位： 合肥工业大学

项目金额： 61万元

中文摘要： 实时持续的绩效评价是响应动态决策环境、实施动态管理的首要前提。作为评价决策单元（DMU）相对效率的重要工具，数据包络分析（DEA）方法至今已获得极大的发展，但面对动态的决策环境，传统DEA方法仍然面临合理分离环境效应、快速响应DMU数量增减以及DMU间关系重构等诸多挑战。为此，本项目相应考虑三种典型动态决策环境：动态运营环境、动态数据环境与动态关联环境，并对三种环境的可能波动情境进行细分；其次，基于各种动态情境引起的DMU异质性、参考集的不稳定性以及DMU间的动态关联性等，将传统DEA效率评价理论由静态评价向动态评价拓展；再运用DEA、数理统计、算法设计、数据挖掘等方法，构建三类典型动态环境下的DMU效率评价方法。最后，运用上述方法对我国零售业发展绩效进行实时评价，据此提升未来产业决策的实时性、持续性与可行性。可见，本项目研究将进一步推动DEA 方法从理论层次走向更为广阔的应用层面。

中文关键词： 数据包络分析；动态决策环境；效率评价；数据挖掘；零售业

英文摘要： A real-time and continual performance evaluation for organizations is the precondition to response the turbulent decision-making environment quickly and to achieve a dynamic management effectively. As an important relative efficiency assessment tool for decision making units (DMUs), to this day, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has gained a great development on both the theory and application research. However, with the turbulent decision making environment, how to properly separate decision environmental effect from DMU operations and how to respond to the DMUs' numbers change and their relationship reorganization, has become the new challenges for traditional DEA methodology. Therefore, the project firstly focuses on three typical dynamic decision environment, namely dynamic operations environment, dynamic data environment and dynamic relationship environment, and decomposes and integrates each possible circumstance in detail. Accordingly, with considering DMUs' non-homogeneity, the instability of reference sets and DMUs' relationship reorganization, the classic DEA theory is extended from static efficiency assessment to dynamic efficiency assessment. Based on the dynamic DEA theory, three types of methods of DMU's efficiency assessment with DEA method, mathematical statistics, algorithm design and data mining, are proposed under the above mentioned dynamic decision-making environments. Finally, these models and methods will be applied to the efficiency assessment, the industrial policy effects estimates and the industrial space optimization of retail industry in China, which will be helpful for improving the timeliness, sustainability and feasibility of Chinese future policy making in retail industrial. The value of the project lies in that it can enrich DEA theoretical system, extend DEA application, and offer decision-making support for industrial policy planning, simultaneously.

英文关键词： Data Envelopment Analysis;Dynamic Decision-making Environment;Efficiency Assessment;Algorithmic Design;Retail Industry