集团交互控制系统：行为自适应性与动态演化机制

项目名称： 集团交互控制系统：行为自适应性与动态演化机制

项目编号： No.71272064

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 罗彪

作者单位： 中国科学技术大学

项目金额： 50万元

中文摘要： 集团交互控制系统由"弹性"控制行为组成，可用于发掘战略机会及应对环境的不确定性，其运行效率对集团战略目标实现具有重要意义。以往研究集中在交互控制行为识别与系统框架建立上，缺乏对行为适应性机理与演化机制的研究。项目拟根据交互控制系统的复杂性特点，首先从三个层面研究其自适应性机理。一是通过构建"管理者认知-组织松弛-动态能力-组织惯例"模型，分析其环境适应性机理；二是通过构建"依赖/信任关系-交互控制行为-绩效"模型，探索其战略一致性机理；三是通过分析系统紧度、使用强度与嵌入性，研究其系统自洽性机理。其次从机制设计与动态博弈的角度揭示交互控制系统的演化机制。最后依据上述结论进行multi-agent建模，对系统多周期涌现结果仿真，并据此提出交互控制系统运行机理与管理对策。项目以实证假设检验与仿真实验为主要研究方法，在分析中综合使用了多层结构方程模型、小世界网格建模与NK模型等方法。

中文关键词： 集团管控；交互控制系统；环境适应性；认知与行为决策；演化机制

英文摘要： The interactive control system (ICS) of group which is composed of "flexible" control behaviors can be used to explore strategy opportunities and cope with environmental uncertainty, so its operational efficiency is of great importance to the achievement of group strategic goals. Previous studies which have focused on the recognition of ICS and the establishment of system framework lacks the research on behavior adaptive mechanism and evolution mechanism. Firstly, this project plans to research ICS's adaptive mechanism from three levels on the basis of its complexity. In the first level, the project analyses the environmental suitability mechanism of ICS via constructing "managerial cognition - organizational slack - dynamic capabilities - organizational inertia" model. In the secend level, the project explores strategic consistency mechanism via constructing "interdependence/trust relationship - interactive control behaviors - performance" model. In the third level, the project studys the system self-consistency mechanism via analysing system density, use intensity and embedability. Then, the project reveals the evolutionary mechanism of ICS from the view of mechanism design and dynamic game. Finally, based on the above conclusions, the project builds a multi-agent model to simulate the system multicycle result

英文关键词： Management and control；Interactive control system；Environmental suitability；Cognitive and behavioral decision；Evolutionary mechanism