基于马斯洛需求层次理论的生活需水计算与动态调控研究

项目名称： 基于马斯洛需求层次理论的生活需水计算与动态调控研究

项目编号： No.51509267

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 侯保灯

作者单位： 中国水利水电科学研究院

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 近年来我国生活用水量呈现出持续稳定的增长态势，受人口增长和新型城镇化的刚性驱动，未来城市和农村生活用水矛盾将更加严峻。由于缺乏居民生活需水机理研究，合理的需水定额无法确定，需水预测可能出现较大偏差，给当前需水管理带来了一定的困难。本项目将马斯洛需求层次理论引入水资源需求计算领域，建立生活用水需求层次理论体系；基于历史用水数据和典型居民、家庭与小区（村庄）3个尺度用水观测实验和调查研究，分别建立城镇居民和农村居民生活需水分层计算方程；识别外部环境变化对居民生活水资源需求的影响因子，并深入分析其影响机理，进而开展外部环境变化背景下的居民生活不同层次需水动态调控技术方法研究。通过本项目的研究，将进一步丰富和发展需水预测理论，为外部环境变化条件下的需水管理提供技术支撑。

中文关键词： 需求层次理论；需求机理；生活需水计算；外部环境变化；动态调控

英文摘要： Domestic water consumption in our country has been increasing steadily in the recent years. Due to the growth of population and new-type urbanization,, the water demand of urban and rural life will be more severe in the future. Because of the unclearing domestic water demand mechanism, reasonable water demand quota cannot be determined, and forecasting water demands has bigger deviation, leading to the difficulty in current water demand management. This study intends to introduce Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs to forecast water demand and to establish hierarchy theory system of domestic water demand. Hierarchy equations of urban and rural domestic water demand are built respectively according to historical data and observation experiment with water consumption and investigations at the scales of typical residents, family and community/village. This study discerns the influence factors of domestic water demand by the external environment change. The dynamic management technology on hierarchy water demands in the context of the external environment change is investigated on the basis of mechanism exploitation. This study will enrich and develop water demand forecast theory and provide technical support to water demand management in the context of external environment change.

英文关键词： Maslow's Hierarchy Theory of Needs ;Demand Mechanism;Domestic Water Demand Calculation;the External Environment Change;Dynamic Regulation