基于数值分析与现场监测自适应数据融合的尾矿库安全评估研究

项目名称： 基于数值分析与现场监测自适应数据融合的尾矿库安全评估研究

项目编号： No.51474048

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 矿业工程

项目作者： 梁力

作者单位： 东北大学

项目金额： 83万元

中文摘要： 我国目前有上万座尾矿库，近年来尾矿库事故频发，引起了社会各界的普遍关注，学者们常通过宏观数值计算分析和现场局部监测等手段对尾矿库的安全进行评估，现有的数值计算分析与监测数据的研究基本处于分离状态，并没有很好地融合起来，安全评估大部分采用单一参数指标进行判断，从而造成评估结果存在着较大的误差，影响到安全评测的效果与准确度，尾矿库工程存在着安全隐患。因此研究基于自适应数据融合的尾矿库安全评估的基础性科学问题具有重要的理论意义和实际意义。本项目拟利用自适应数据融合理论和方法将传统的数值分析结果与现场的监测数据进行有机结合，研究数值计算中大量数据的特征融合规律，确定尾矿库的不同安全等级及失稳破坏类型，建立关键点与特征值的数据库，并通过与多源监测数据进行自适应数据融合分析，突破目前单一与分离的评估模式，实现对尾矿库安全稳定问题的实时动态综合安全评估与预测预警，为组织防灾减灾工作决策提供科学的依据。

中文关键词： 尾矿库；数值分析；现场监测；自适应数据融合；安全评估

英文摘要： As we all know, there are thousands of tailing dams in China, and the tailing dam accidents happen frequently in recent years, which caused a widespread concern in the community. The scholars and experts often assess the safety of tailing dams by means of numerical analysis and local field monitoring. The existing numerical analysis and monitoring data are separated and these data need a better mixture. Most of the safety assessments are determined according to one single indicator. As a result, there are usually significant prediction errors which affect the results and accuracy of the safety assessment and this also means that the tailing dams have security risks. Therefore, the research on the basic scientific problems of tailing dam safety assessment based on adaptive data fusion has important theoretical and practical significance. This projection aims to combine organically the traditional numerical analysis with the field monitoring through the adaptive data fusion theory and method. In research work, the characteristic fusion rules are studied and the different safety levels and failure types are determined based on a large number of numerical data for establishing the database of key points and eigenvalues. So the single and separated assessment mode is broken by analysis of adaptive data fusion of multi-source monitoring data to achieve a comprehensive real-time dynamic safety assessments and prediction of tailing dam accidents as well as provide a scientific reference for the disaster prevention and mitigation decisions.

英文关键词： Tailings dam;numerical analysis;field monitoring;adaptive data-fusion;safety assessments