蝗虫型变的非光滑时空动力学模型与数据验证研究

项目名称： 蝗虫型变的非光滑时空动力学模型与数据验证研究

项目编号： No.11471201

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 唐三一

作者单位： 陕西师范大学

项目金额： 68万元

中文摘要： 蝗虫从散居型向群居型型态的转变是蝗灾爆发的关键生物学基础，近来群体和个体水平上的实验确定了蝗虫型变临界种群密度的存在性和新的型变调控机制及其关键调控因子。应用Filippov非光滑动力系统建立刻画蝗虫两个型态之间不同增长规律、不同行为及与其天敌相互作用的蝗虫型变时空动力学模型，结合由经度和纬度划分的空间区域中蝗灾爆发与否的监测月或年网格数据，发展模型辨识技巧实现网络模型上预测的蝗虫种群爆发区域与实际监测蝗灾爆发空间区域之间的对接，验证模型的有效性。应用非光滑动力系统滑动分支和数值计算方法，研究包括雨量、温度和空间迁飞等在内的关键因子对蝗虫型变频率及爆发程度的影响，进而预测蝗虫在不同空间网格中群体行动的起始时刻和临界种群密度，以维持蝗虫散居型态为目标确定实施蝗灾综合控制措施的最佳时间以及最佳空间分布区域。建立并研究型变调控网络模型，揭示未知的关键型变调控因子，为进一步实验设计提供思路。

中文关键词： 蝗虫型变；Filippov非光滑动力系统；时空模型；监测数据；模型验证

英文摘要： Locusts change reversibly between solitarious and gregarious phases that differ dramatically in appearance, structure, physiology and behaviour. Phase change is the key biological basis underlying locust outbreaks leading to plagues. Recent research has confirmed the existence of threshold population densities related to locust phase change and indentified new regulatory mechanisms and the key factors involved. By considering locusts as a Filippov non-smooth dynamic system, spatio-temporal models, which describe the different growth processes and behaviour of the two phases of locusts and interactions with their natural enemies, will be developed and analyzed. In conjunction with existing monthly or annual datasets for the number of 1 degree grid squares infested with desert locusts Schistocerca gregaria, the model will be developed to achieve correspondence between outbreak areas of locust populations predicted in network models and field data on actual locust plagues. The effects of key factors including rainfall, temperature and migration on the outbreak frequency and intensity will be addressed in more detail using the sliding bifurcations and numerical techniques of a Filippov non-smooth dynamic system. This will allow predictions of the starting times of gregarious phases and critical population densities in different spatial grids and determination of the optimal times and spatial regions for application of integrated control measures aimed at maintaining the density of the locust populations below a threshold such that they stay in the solitarious phase. In order to reveal any unknown critical regulatory factors involved in, we will construct and investigate regulatory network models of locust phase change, which could provide new ideas for further experimental design.

英文关键词： Phase change of locust;Filippov non-smooth dynamic system;Spatial-temporal model;Field dataset;Model validation