基于动态风险的危险品多式联运运输方式及运输路径优化研究

项目名称： 基于动态风险的危险品多式联运运输方式及运输路径优化研究

项目编号： No.71302043

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 刘丽萍

作者单位： 华东理工大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 本项目采用概率统计、风险分析、双层优化以及随机规划等优化理论方法，深入研究基于动态风险的危险品多式联运运输方式和运输路径优化问题。首先针对风险的时间空间变化动态性，综合考虑不同时段、不同路段、不同运输方式组合以及不同的风险事故率等因素，构建危险品多式联运动态风险评价模型；其次在动态风险评价的基础上，针对特定的运输方式组合，将每段路径不同时段的动态风险值不超过风险上限值随机变量作为随机动态风险约束条件，构建动态风险约束下的危险品多式联运运输路径优化模型，并设计启发式算法对模型求解，提出危险品多式联运运输路径优化方案；最后针对不同的运输方式组合，将其量化后剖析新的动态风险约束条件，进而构建基于双层优化的危险品多式联运运输方式及运输路径集成优化模型，并设计主-从两层混合智能启发式算法求解模型，提出危险品多式联运运输方式及运输路径集成优化方案。研究能为危险品多式联运优化决策提供理论指导和方法支持。

中文关键词： 危险品多式联运；风险评价；双层规划；随机规划；动态风险

英文摘要： This project researchs on transportation mode and transportation route optimization of hazardous materials multimodal transportation based on dynamic risk by using the statistical probability, risk analysis, bi-level optimization as well as the stochastic programming optimization theory and method etc.. Firstly, in allusion to time and space change of dynamic risk, a dynamic risk assessment model of hazardous materials multimodal transportation is presented considering different time, different sections,different combination of transportion modes,different risk accident rates and other factors. Secondly, on the basis of dynamic risk assessment, in allusion to specific combination of transportion modes ,let that the dynamic risk values of different sections and different time do not exceed the risk upper limit values (which are random variables) as dynamic stochastic risk constraint conditions. Then a transportation route optimization model hazardous materials multimodal transportation under the dynamic risk constraint conditions is built, and heuristic algorithm is adopted to solve the model.Moreover,a transportation route optimization projcet of hazardous materials multimodal transportation is designed. Finally, in consideration of different combination of transportion modes, new risk constraint conditions are

英文关键词： Hazmat multimodal transportation；Risk assessment；Bi-level programming；Stochastic programming；Dynamic risk