震后松散堆积层降雨滑坡预警阈值与预警方法研究

项目名称： 震后松散堆积层降雨滑坡预警阈值与预警方法研究

项目编号： No.41471429

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 田宏岭

作者单位： 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： 近年，地震活动进入活跃期，全球气候变化带来的极端天气导致的滑坡、泥石流等灾害频发。各地针对震后滑坡，建立了多套监测系统。现有预警阈值主要基于区域降雨、或基于变形加速度曲线，预警模型或基于水文模型、或基于塑性变形理论甚至基于统计模型，未考虑堆积层滑坡特点，难以真实分析滑坡变形过程，从而导致预警的误报、漏报现象较多。本研究针对堆积层滑坡的特性，以渗流及结构破坏理论为指导，并通过典型滑坡室内外模型试验，建立震后松散堆积体滑坡在降雨条件下的地质模型，并通过实时监测系统对真实滑坡进行监测，验证模型可靠性，以此为基础提出基于该模型的预警方法，为地震灾区地质灾害监测系统提供参考。

中文关键词： 地震；堆积层；滑坡；阈值；预警

英文摘要： Earthquake becomes active in China recently. Consequently, many landslides occurred because of earthquakes and extreme weather caused by global weather change. There are many monitoring systems were built for disaster mitigation. Current pre-warning methods either on hydrological model or on plastic deformation, some even only based on statistical model, the characters of deposits landslide is neglected. The threshold either based on reginal precipitation or on deformation acceleration. Therefore many disasters were missed or skipped. According to the property of deposidts, and guided by the percolation mechanics and structure damage theory, this research will run geotechnical experiments both in field and indoors, and setup a geological model for after earthquake debris landslide in rain conditions. Besids this, a real-time monitoring system will provide test and virification. Finally, a pre-warning method based on this model will be suggested for earthquake struck area for referrence.

英文关键词： earthquake;debris;landslide;threshold;pre-warning