汶川Ms8.0级地震滑坡的长期活动性及趋势研究

项目名称： 汶川Ms8.0级地震滑坡的长期活动性及趋势研究

项目编号： No.41502313

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 杨志华

作者单位： 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 汶川地震之后，地震灾区地质灾害加剧，频率和规模显著高于震前水平，对震后工程规划建设具有重大影响。针对当前地震地质灾害的长期活动性研究主要集中于“时间”这一线性指标、缺乏“时空分布”变化规律研究的现状，本项目拟以汶川Ms8.0级地震前后滑坡灾害的时空变化为切入点，在完善长时间序列地震滑坡数据库（2000-2018）的基础上，采用GIS空间分析、数理统计和遥感监测等方法，开展汶川震区滑坡的长期活动性研究。重点揭示汶川震区滑坡在空间上的发育分布变化规律、在时间上的强度变化规律以及强度-频率分布变化规律。通过地震影响下的滑坡优势因子区间与空间集聚性的关系研究以及两种与时间相关的滑坡强度（DL、RL）研究，剖析地震效应对汶川震后滑坡长期发育分布特征的影响机制，定量描述汶川震区滑坡的长期活动性，并推断其发展趋势。研究成果可以为汶川震后滑坡危险性评价和风险管控提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 地震滑坡；长期活动性；时空分布；强度-频率分布；统计模型

英文摘要： After 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the frequency and scale of geo-hazards has a considerable increase comparing with before earthquake in the earthquake-hit area, which has brought an adverse impact on the infrastructures and human safety. So far, for the long-term activity of post-seismic geo-hazards, the linear index of sustained time has been extensively studied while the variation of spatio-temporal distribution has not been well addressed. So, the long-term landslides from 2000 to 2018 will be taken to conduct the study on the long-term activity characteristics of landslide in the meizoseismal area, which is mainly focused on the spatio-temporal variation pattern before and after earthquake. The adopted methods include spatial analysis using GIS technology, statistical probability analysis and multiple-temporal remote sensing, etc. The study mainly includes 3 aspects: (1) variation pattern of landslide spatial distribution, (2) variation pattern of landslide intensity over time series, and (3) variation pattern of landslide intensity-frequency distribution. In spatial, focusing on the study on the relationship of priority interval of causal factors and spatial clustering of landslides under the sustained effect of earthquake. In temporal, focusing on the study on two landslide intensity correlating with time: landslide number of one day, landslide number of one rainfall event. Then, analyzing the mechanism of sustained effect of earthquake on development characteristics of post-seismic landslides, and quantitatively describing the long-term activity characteristics of landslides in the earthquake-hit area, and inferring their future development tendency. The study results can provide the beneficial reference for hazard assessment and risk control of post-seismic landslides.

英文关键词： earthquake-induced landslide;long-term activity;spatio-temporal distribution;intensity-frequency distribution;statistic model