复杂系统“#20122;健康”#29366;态的诊断预测及智能控制关键算法研究

项目名称： 复杂系统“#20122;健康”#29366;态的诊断预测及智能控制关键算法研究

项目编号： No.61004118

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2011

项目学科： 交通运输

项目作者： 黄大荣

作者单位： 重庆交通大学

项目金额： 7万元

中文摘要： 本课题通过对复杂系统"亚健康"状态的诊断预测模式进行研究并初步建立"亚健康"状态的智能控制模型体系，初步建立了复杂系统安全性能指标体系的框架模型及评价机制；在所建立的框架模型的基础上，对复杂系统"亚健康"的诊断预测模型进行了初步研究，建立了"亚健康"状态下系统的性能退化评估模型，同时对其"亚健康"状态下的系统可靠性评估及分配进行了研究，初步实现了"亚健康"状态的智能控制，并在交通、国防、工业等复杂系统的安全监控中进行了实验论证。并在此基础上对延伸研究了复杂系统"亚健康"状态下故障预测技术的安全性能评估方法。建立的理论框架模型不仅可以为复杂系统的管理、诊断及维修提供了依据，保证复杂系统带"病"运行的可靠性和安全性，改善复杂系统的可测性和可管理性，还可以为目前在役工程的带"病"运行提供理论支撑工具。

中文关键词： 复杂系统；"亚健康"状态；诊断预测模式；智能控制模型；多源信息融合

英文摘要： Through the research of diagnosis and forecast mode of sub-health state and establishment of intelligent control model for sub-health state, the project researches the security performance index system model and estimate mechanism of complicated system; According with the framework and value mechaism, the diagonis and predict model of the subhealth state was roughly established for the complicated sytems; meanwhile, we also have constructed the reliability evaluation and assignment model and implemented the intelligent control for subheahth state, and the colusions have been tested and verified in the fields of the traffic,national defense and industry etc.;and we have future researched the effectiveness evaluation of fault-prediction technology of the subhealth state for the complicated sytems. We are planning to provide a diagnosis and forecast mode of sub-health state which can assure the reliability and security when complicated system running with faults, and to improve measurability and controllability of complicated system.In virtue of the research outcome, we will consequently supply theory support and technology ensurence for nowadays underway projects running with faults, and ultimately facilitate the development in this research field.

英文关键词： complicated systems;sub-health condition; diagnosis prediction pattern;intelligent control model;multi-source information fusion