跨流域调水工程突发事件演化机理及动态协同管理机制研究:以南水北调中线工程为例

项目名称： 跨流域调水工程突发事件演化机理及动态协同管理机制研究:以南水北调中线工程为例

项目编号： No.U1304702

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李红艳

作者单位： 河南工程学院

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 水资源短缺和时空分布不均是阻碍地区经济社会发展的重要因素，跨流域调水工程是缓解该问题的有效途径之一。然而，由于跨流域调水工程输水距离长、管理主体多、沿线地质和天气条件复杂，工程运行中可能会遇到许多突发事件，如水污染，从而影响工程的正常运行。项目以跨流域调水工程为研究对象，从工程内部和外部，详细分析工程运行中可能遇到的突发事件，根据产生的影响、后果、发生频率对事件分级；运用系统动力学和多米诺效应分析主要事件的发生条件、发展方向、扩散路径及事件间的耦合条件、耦合路径和演化模式，借鉴生命周期理论，将突发事件综合演化过程分为四个阶段；根据事态的发展阶段，运用协同论和多Agent知识从组织协同、信息协同、资源协同和决策协同四个方面构建动态协同应急管理机制，最后以南水北调中线工程为例进行仿真应用。本项目旨在揭示跨流域调水工程突发事件演化规律，根据规律设计机制，为实现工程有效供水提供理论依据和决策参考。

中文关键词： 南水北调；突发事件；诱发原因；博弈；协同

英文摘要： Water shortages and uneven distribution on spatial and temporal are the important factors that hinder the region's economic and social development, inter-basin water transfer project is one of the effective ways to alleviate the problem. However, due to the characteristic of Inter-basin Water Transfer Project: long distance, a lot of management, complex geological and weather conditions, there may be encounter many unexpected events during operation, such as water pollution, thus affects the project normal operation. The project intends to study inter-basin water transfer project, from engineering internal and external, detailed analysis of all types of emergencies that may be encountered in the project operation, grade events according to the possible impact, consequences and frequency;by using system dynamics and the domino effect, analysis the occurrence conditions, development direction, diffusion path of the main emergency, coupling conditions, coupling path and evolution mode among emergencies; and learn from the life-cycle theory, divided the consolidated evolution into four stages of inter-basin water transfer project emergencies; according to development stage, from the organization and coordination, information coordination, resource coordination and decision-making synergies in four areas to build a

英文关键词： the South-to-North Water Transfer Project；emergency；cause；game theory；coordination