基于能值分析的重大工程项目集成生态评价研究

项目名称： 基于能值分析的重大工程项目集成生态评价研究

项目编号： No.71271180

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 周红

作者单位： 厦门大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 长期以来，对重大工程复杂系统机理认识不足，量纲不统一、定量化不够，缺乏有效的直观评价工具是重大工程决策失误的症结所在。在"工程生态"视野下，基于系统论和系统生态学，采用系统分析方法和生态网络分析方法，"活化"工程，采用仿生路线解析重大工程项目生态系统，建立能值模型，研究重大工程系统的生态代谢，揭示重大工程项目复杂系统的内在生态特性和演化机理。以能值为统一尺度，采用能值分析方法，构建重大工程生态评价能值指标体系，研究特征能值转换率的能值计算方法，实现重大工程项目的定量评价。采用计算实验方法和能值分析方法的集成实现重大工程项目复杂系统的数值仿真；集成BIM、GIS和Muilt-Agent技术实现对其空间表达和模拟仿真，展现其生态演化。通过长江三峡工程和漳州PX重大化工项目案例研究进行验证。本项目的研究，变综合评价为生态评价，为重大工程项目评价提供新理论、方法和决策工具，具有理论意义和应用价值。

中文关键词： 能值；重大工程；集成；生态评价；信息技术

英文摘要： For a long time, the problems of complex system mechanism of major engineering, such as lack of acknowledge, inconsistence of scale, insufficient quantification and lack of valid direct viewing evaluation tools lead to decision failures of major engineering projects.Under the view of engineering ecology, based on system theory and system ecology, employs system analysis method and ecological network analysis method, activates engineering, adopts simulation route to analyze ecological systems of major engineering projects, set up emergy models, study ecological metabolism of major engineering and to unveil the internal ecological characteristics and evolving mechanism of large-scale complex engineering system. Given Emergy as the uniform scale, adopting emergy analysis methods, building up emergy evaluation index system of major engineering, studing the emergy calculation methods of characteristic emergy transformation rate, to realize quantitative assessment of major engineering. Employing the integration of computational experiments methods and emergy analysis methods realizes the numerical simulation of complex system mechanism of major engineering; getting help from the integration of BIM, GIS and Multi-agent technique makes the linguistic expressions of space and analog simulation come true, to emerge ecolog

英文关键词： emergy；major engineering project；intergration；ecological assessment；information technology