中国干旱空间格局变化的归因分析与预估研究

项目名称： 中国干旱空间格局变化的归因分析与预估研究

项目编号： No.41305061

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 陈活泼

作者单位： 中国科学院大气物理研究所

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 研究我国干旱的基本特征、影响和成因，探讨未来异常干旱气候趋势和空间格局变化对旱灾所应采取的对策措施具有十分重要意义。本项目基于能表征干旱多时间尺度特征的标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)，研究我国不同类型干旱事件的空间格局分布特征，通过设计敏感性试验量化分析降水和温度变化对我国干旱的作用；分析我国不同植被类型对干旱的响应时间尺度并给出其空间格局分布；为了加强对我国干旱成因的认识，探讨自然变率和人类活动对我国干旱的相对贡献。另外，利用CMIP5多耦合模式在RCP辐射强迫情景下的输出结果预估变暖背景下我国干旱气候变化趋势以及空间格局变化，并给出不确定性分析，以期给政府部门和决策者在制定应对气候变化有关对策时提供一定的科学依据。

中文关键词： 干旱；时空变化；成因；预估；

英文摘要： Accurate understanding of drought change and reliable projections of future drought change and its regional impact are critical for the long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. Thus, this project firstly investigates the spatial characteristics of different drought events in China for the last five decades basing on the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Then, the quantitative analysis is implemented on the contribution of precipitation and temperature variations to the drought changes in China by several sensitive experiments. Because of the great sensitivity of vegetation ecosystem to the drought events, the resistant time scales of ecosystem will be investigated to the drought. To increase the understanding of the attribution of drought changes in China, the relative contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic activity to the drought change will be also explored by this project. Additionally, we also plan to make a projection of future drought change in China using CMIP5 models, including changes in spatial-temporal characteristics and its uncertainty, in the hopes of providing scientific references or suggestions to the governments or decision makers.

英文关键词： drought；spatio-temporal changes；mechanism；projection；