基于不确定理论和蒙特卡罗模拟的铀矿区气载放射性核素健康风险评价

项目名称： 基于不确定理论和蒙特卡罗模拟的铀矿区气载放射性核素健康风险评价

项目编号： No.11205054

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 物理学II

项目作者： 王志勇

作者单位： 湖南工业大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 铀矿的开采和利用产生了大量放射性废物，严重污染环境，危害公众健康。目前辐射防护评价工作仍十分薄弱，还有许多问题有待深入研究，最重要的问题就是传统的基于确定论的单因子指数评价法过于简单且无法提供定量的概率分布信息，大大的影响了评价结果的准确性。实际上，由于众多因素的影响，不确定性存在于一切风险评价之中。不确定性的定量化处理是风险评价必须解决的关键技术问题，目前国内外对此尚缺乏深度的理论研究和准确的分析方法。申请者通过开展放射性核素的迁移扩散和铀矿区辐射安全评价等前期研究，已掌握了不确定性的主要来源和处理方法。本项目拟在此基础上，基于不确定理论，构建健康风险评价模型，变定性评价为定量评价；采用蒙特卡罗模拟，定量评价铀矿区气载放射性核素的致癌风险，定量分析剂量估算模式的不确定性；为公众和环境管理者提供相对准确和科学的信息；研究成果对非铀矿和非放射性污染物的健康风险评价也有一定的借鉴意义。

中文关键词： 铀矿区；放射性核素；健康风险评价；蒙特卡罗模拟；不确定理论

英文摘要： Large amounts of radioactive waste being produced by uranium mining and utiliation, seriously pollute environment and severely endanger public health. Radiation protection evaluation is still very weak at present. There are many issues to be in-depth study, the most important is the traditional single factor index appraisal method based on deterministic is too simple and can not provide the quantitative probability distribution information, thus greatly affect the accuracy of evaluation results. In fact, uncertainties exist in all risk evaluations due to the influence of many factors. The quantificationally estimate on the uncertainty is the key technical problems must be solveed in the risk assessment. At home and abroad, yet lack deep theoretical research and accurate analysis methods. The applicants have mastered the main source of uncertainty and its processing methods through the preliminary study that migration and diffusion of radionuclides and uranium radiation safety evaluation. On this basis, the project intends to build the health risk assessment model based on uncertainty theory, change the qualitative evaluation to quantitative evaluation, quantitative evaluation carcinogenic risk of airborne radionuclides in uranium ore district and quantitative analysis the uncertainty of dose estimation model by

英文关键词： Uranium Ore District；Radioactive Radionuclide；Health Risk Assessment；Monte Carlo simulation；Uncertainty Theory