基于模拟方法的城市土壤重金属污染风险评估及不确定性分析

项目名称： 基于模拟方法的城市土壤重金属污染风险评估及不确定性分析

项目编号： No.41301509

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 孙英君

作者单位： 山东建筑大学

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 在工业、农业、交通及城市生活多重环境压力下，城市土壤受重金属污染，质量明显下降。对城市土壤重金属污染进行生态风险分析，从源头上加以控制，对实施污染治理具有十分重要的意义。研究的主要内容包括：土壤重金属空间分布多重模拟、污染"极值点"的探测、土壤重金属污染生态风险分析及定量不确定性分析。课题采取的技术路线包括基于实地采样数据的空间分布模拟与验证，基于美国RBVA模型的土壤重金属污染风险评价，及其对评价结果的定量不确定性分析。课题目标拟通过引入序贯指示模拟方法获取等概率土壤重金属空间分布，一方面避免传统的克里格插值方法平滑效应掩盖重金属分布的极值点，另一方面获取城市土壤重金属分布的各种可能结果。将该结果传递到城市土壤重金属风险评价结果，对风险等级配以定量不确定性分析，为决策者进行土壤治理提供科学的依据。

中文关键词： 土壤重金属；生态风险评估；高斯序列模拟；极值分析；不确定性

英文摘要： Environment and health of the soil are closely linked with the developments of industrialization, agriculture, tranpotation and urbanization. It is important to identify the resources of heavy metal pollution to control and phytoremediation.Firstly, the spatil distribution of soil heavy metal will be realized, Especially the maximum and minimum values will be reserved. Currently, geostatistical interpolation, Kriging, is increasingly used to estimate pollutant concentrations in soils. However, the traditional method - - kriging-based approach will bring the smoothing effect in the result. The detailed spatial patterns of pollutants could, therefore, be lost. The simulation method, Sequential indicator simulation(SIS), which has the ability to model not only single, but also multi-location uncertainties will be introduced to get the ideal results. Based on the SIS realizations, the local uncertainty of heavy metal concentrations at a specific location, refers to the probability of heavy metal concentration being higher than the defined threshold, representing the probability of contamination on single point can be found. Moreover, the multi-location uncertainty of an area, refers to the probability of heavy metal concentrations in several locations in a certain area, being higher than the threshold can be calcul

英文关键词： heavy metal in soil；ecological risk evaluation；sequential simulation；maximum area；uncertainty