The discovery of causal relationships is a fundamental problem in science and medicine. In recent years, many elegant approaches to discovering causal relationships between two variables from observational data have been proposed. However, most of these deal only with purely directed causal relationships and cannot detect latent common causes. Here, we devise a general heuristic which takes a causal discovery algorithm that can only distinguish purely directed causal relations and modifies it to also detect latent common causes. We apply our method to two directed causal discovery algorithms, the Information Geometric Causal Inference of (Daniusis et al., 2010) and the Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference of (Mitrovic, Sejdinovic, & Teh, 2018), and extensively test on synthetic data -- detecting latent common causes in additive, multiplicative and complex noise regimes -- and on real data, where we are able to detect known common causes. In addition to detecting latent common causes, our experiments demonstrate that both the modified algorithms preserve the performance of the original in distinguishing directed causal relations.
翻译:发现因果关系是科学和医学的一个根本问题。近年来,提出了许多优雅的方法来发现观测数据中两个变量之间的因果关系。然而,大多数这些方法都只涉及纯粹直接的因果关系,无法发现潜在的共同原因。在这里,我们设计了一种一般的因果发现算法,这种算法只能区分纯粹直接的因果关系,并修改它以探测潜在的共同原因。我们采用的方法是两种直接的因果发现算法,即信息几何原因推断法(Daniusis等人,2010年)和Kernnel Conditional Deviance, 用于判断(Mitrovic, Sejdinovic, & Teh, 2018年),并广泛测试合成数据 -- -- 在添加、倍增和复杂的噪音制度中发现潜在共同原因,以及在我们能够发现已知的共同原因的实际数据上发现潜在的共同原因。除了发现潜在的共同原因外,我们的实验还表明,两种修改的算法都保留了原始的特性,以区分直接因果关系。