Traffic forecasting has emerged as a core component of intelligent transportation systems. However, timely accurate traffic forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, still remains an open challenge due to the highly nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies of traffic flows. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm of Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks (STTNs) that leverages dynamical directed spatial dependencies and long-range temporal dependencies to improve the accuracy of long-term traffic forecasting. Specifically, we present a new variant of graph neural networks, named spatial transformer, by dynamically modeling directed spatial dependencies with self-attention mechanism to capture realtime traffic conditions as well as the directionality of traffic flows. Furthermore, different spatial dependency patterns can be jointly modeled with multi-heads attention mechanism to consider diverse relationships related to different factors (e.g. similarity, connectivity and covariance). On the other hand, the temporal transformer is utilized to model long-range bidirectional temporal dependencies across multiple time steps. Finally, they are composed as a block to jointly model the spatial-temporal dependencies for accurate traffic prediction. Compared to existing works, the proposed model enables fast and scalable training over a long range spatial-temporal dependencies. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves competitive results compared with the state-of-the-arts, especially forecasting long-term traffic flows on real-world PeMS-Bay and PeMSD7(M) datasets.
翻译:然而,由于交通流量高度非线性和动态空间时空依赖性,及时准确的交通预测,特别是长期预测,仍是一个开放的挑战。在本文件中,我们提出了空间-时空变换网络的新模式,利用动态定向空间依赖性和长期时间依赖性来提高长期交通预测的准确性。具体地说,我们提出了一个新的图表神经网络变式,称为空间变异器,通过动态地建模带有自控机制的空间依赖性来捕捉实时交通状况以及交通流量的方向性。此外,不同的空间依赖性模式可以与多头关注机制共同建模,以考虑与不同因素(如相似性、连通性和易变异性)有关的各种关系。另一方面,利用时间变异器来模拟跨多个时间步骤的长期双向双向时间依赖性。最后,它们被组成成一个共同模型,用以模拟空间-时空预测性预测结果,特别是空间-时空预测性预测结果,比现有快速预测结果,比对空间-时空预测结果进行空间预测。