An economic system is an exemplar of a complex system in which all agents interact simultaneously. Interactions between countries have generally been studied using the flow of resources across diverse trade networks, in which the degree of dependence between two countries is typically measured based on the trade volume. However, indirect influences may not be immediately apparent. Herein, we compared a direct trade network to a trade network constructed using the personalized PageRank (PPR) encompassing indirect influences. By analyzing the correlation of the gross domestic product (GDP) between countries, we discovered that the PPR trade network has greater explanatory power on the propagation of economic events than direct trade by analyzing the GDP correlation between countries. To further validate our observations, an agent-based model of the spreading economic crisis was implemented for the Russia-Ukraine war of 2022. The model also demonstrates that the PPR explains the actual impact more effectively than the direct trade network. Our research highlights the significance of indirect and long-range relationships, which have often been overlooked
翻译:通常利用不同贸易网络的资源流动来研究国家间的相互作用,通常根据贸易量衡量两国之间的依赖程度,但间接影响可能不会立即显现。我们在这里将直接贸易网络与利用个人化PageRank(PPR)(包括间接影响)建立的贸易网络相比较。我们通过分析国家间国内生产总值(GDP)的相互关系,发现PPR贸易网络在传播经济事件方面比通过分析国家间的GDP关系直接贸易对直接贸易具有更大的解释力。为了进一步证实我们的意见,2022年俄罗斯-乌克兰战争实施了基于代理人的经济危机蔓延模式。该模式还表明,PPR对实际影响的解释比直接贸易网络更有效。我们的研究强调了间接和远程关系的重要性,而这种关系往往被忽视。