One-step weighting to generalize and transport treatment effect estimates to a target population

In randomized experiments and observational studies, weighting methods are often used to generalize and transport treatment effect estimates to a target population. Traditional methods construct the weights by separately modeling the treatment assignment and study selection probabilities and then multiplying functions (e.g., inverses) of their estimates. However, these estimated multiplicative weights may not produce adequate covariate balance and can be highly variable, resulting in biased and unstable estimators, especially when there is limited covariate overlap across populations or treatment groups. To address these limitations, we propose a general weighting approach that weights each treatment group towards the target population in a single step. We present a framework and provide a justification for this one-step approach in terms of generic probability distributions. We show a formal connection between our method and inverse probability and inverse odds weighting. By construction, the proposed approach balances covariates and produces stable estimators. We show that our estimator for the target average treatment effect is consistent, asymptotically Normal, multiply robust, and semiparametrically efficient. We demonstrate the performance of this approach using a simulation study and a randomized case study on the effects of physician racial diversity on preventive healthcare utilization among Black men in California.