We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 01/01/2015 to 30/09/2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction of the baseline trend of casualties in Italy, with a surplus of mortality in correspondence to the flu epidemics in winter and to the hottest periods in summer. While these peaks are symmetric in shape, the peak in coincidence with the COVID-19 pandemics is asymmetric and more pronounced. We fit the former with a Gaussian function and the latter with a Gompertz function, in order to quantify number of casualties, the duration and the position of all causes of excess deaths. The overall quality of the fit to the data turns out to be very good. We discuss the trend of casualties in Italy by different classes of ages and for the different genders. We finally compare the data-subtracted casualties as reported by ISTAT with those reported by the Italian Department for Civil Protection (DPC) relative to the deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, and we discuss the differences.
翻译:我们分析了意大利国家统计局(ISTAT)公布的关于意大利1/01/2015至30/09/2020年期间的伤亡数据,这些数据显示出明显的类象行为,这可以有力地减少意大利的伤亡基线趋势,在冬季和夏季最热的时期,与流感流行病对应的死亡率有盈余,虽然这些高峰的形状是对称的,但与COVID-19流行病巧合的高峰是不对称的,而且更加明显。我们把前者与Gaussian功能相匹配,而后者与Gompertz功能相匹配,以便量化伤亡人数、持续时间和所有超重死亡原因的位置。与数据相符的总体质量非常好。我们讨论意大利不同年龄段和不同性别的伤亡趋势。我们最后将ISTAT所报告的数据采集的伤亡趋势与意大利公民保护部(DPC)报告的与COVID-19直接造成死亡的伤亡相比,我们讨论了差异。