Approximate Post-Selective Inference for Regression with the Group LASSO

We develop a post-selective Bayesian framework to jointly and consistently estimate parameters in group-sparse linear regression models. After selection with the Group LASSO (or generalized variants such as the overlapping, sparse, or standardized Group LASSO), uncertainty estimates for the selected parameters are unreliable in the absence of adjustments for selection bias. Existing post-selective approaches are limited to uncertainty estimation for (i) real-valued projections onto very specific selected subspaces for the group-sparse problem, (ii) selection events categorized broadly as polyhedral events that are expressible as linear inequalities in the data variables. Our Bayesian methods address these gaps by deriving a likelihood adjustment factor, and an approximation thereof, that eliminates bias from selection. Paying a very nominal price for this adjustment, experiments on simulated data, and data from the Human Connectome Project demonstrate the efficacy of our methods for a joint estimation of group-sparse parameters and their uncertainties post selection.