Measuring the strengths of the teams in the UEFA Champions League

One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. Since the ranking is still based on the results of these matches, fairness requires guaranteeing that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in forecasting Champions League matches. Therefore, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.