One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. Since the ranking is still based on the results of these matches, fairness requires guaranteeing that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in forecasting Champions League matches. Therefore, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.
翻译：根据2024/25赛季开始实施的改革，欧洲冠军联赛将会从传统小组赛阶段转变为一项联赛，每支球队将进行八场比赛。由于排名仍然基于这些比赛的结果，公平需要确保球队的对手实力相同。本文研究了目前使用的球队评分方法——欧洲联赛俱乐部积分是否能通过考虑国内联赛的比赛来改进。根据我们的逻辑回归模型，Elo方法的变体在预测冠军联赛比赛时提供了更高的准确性。因此，我们建议欧洲足球协会（UEFA）效仿FIFA世界排名改革俱乐部积分的计算方法，以避免在新的联赛形式下出现不平衡的赛程安排。
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