How will superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) affect human decision making? And what will be the mechanisms behind this effect? We address these questions in a domain where AI already exceeds human performance, analyzing more than 5.8 million move decisions made by professional Go players over the past 71 years (1950-2021). To address the first question, we use a superhuman AI program to estimate the quality of human decisions across time, generating 58 billion counterfactual game patterns and comparing the win rates of actual human decisions with those of counterfactual AI decisions. We find that humans began to make significantly better decisions following the advent of superhuman AI. We then examine human players' strategies across time and find that novel decisions (i.e., previously unobserved moves) occurred more frequently and became associated with higher decision quality after the advent of superhuman AI. Our findings suggest that the development of superhuman AI programs may have prompted human players to break away from traditional strategies and induced them to explore novel moves, which in turn may have improved their decision-making.
翻译:超人人工智能(AI)将如何影响人类决策? 超人人工智能(AI)将如何影响人类决策? 而这种效应背后的机制是什么? 我们是在AI已经超过人类绩效的领域解决这些问题的,分析过去71年(1950-2021年)中专业Go球员作出的超过580万个移动决定。为了解决第一个问题,我们使用超人人工智能方案来评估人类决策的跨时间质量,产生580亿个反事实游戏模式,并将实际人类决策的赢率与反事实人工智能决策的赢率进行比较。我们发现,在超人人工智能的出现之后,人类开始做出显著更好的决定。然后我们审视人类玩家的战略,发现新的决定(即以前没有观察到的动作)发生得更频繁,并在超人人工智能出现后与更高的决策质量相联系。我们的研究结果表明,超人人工智能软件方案的发展可能促使人类玩家脱离传统策略,并引导他们探索新的动作,而这反过来又会改善他们的决策。</s>