Many applications in computational sciences and statistical inference require the computation of expectations with respect to complex high-dimensional distributions with unknown normalization constants, as well as the estimation of these constants. Here we develop a method to perform these calculations based on generating samples from a simple base distribution, transporting them by the flow generated by a velocity field, and performing averages along these flowlines. This non-equilibrium importance sampling (NEIS) strategy is straightforward to implement and can be used for calculations with arbitrary target distributions. On the theory side, we discuss how to tailor the velocity field to the target and establish general conditions under which the proposed estimator is a perfect estimator with zero-variance. We also draw connections between NEIS and approaches based on mapping a base distribution onto a target via a transport map. On the computational side, we show how to use deep learning to represent the velocity field by a neural network and train it towards the zero variance optimum. These results are illustrated numerically on benchmark examples (with dimension up to $10$), where after training the velocity field, the variance of the NEIS estimator is reduced by up to $6$ orders of magnitude than that of a vanilla estimator. We also compare the performances of NEIS with those of Neal's annealed importance sampling (AIS).
翻译:在计算科学和统计推断中,许多应用都要求计算对复杂高维分布的预期值,这些高度分布具有未知的正常化常数,以及这些常数的估计值。 在这里,我们开发了一种方法来进行这些计算,根据简单的基分布生成样本,通过速度场产生的流动进行运输,并沿着这些流线执行平均值。这种非平衡重要性抽样(NEIS)战略可以直接实施,可以用于任意的目标分布计算。在理论方面,我们讨论如何使速度场与目标相适应,并创造一般条件,使提议的估算器成为零变化的完美估计器。我们还根据对基分布进行绘图的方法与通过运输图对目标进行绘图的方法进行连接。在计算方面,我们展示了如何利用深度学习来通过一个神经网络来代表速度场,并训练它达到零差异最佳。这些结果用数字用基准示例来说明(尺寸最高达1美元),在培训速度场后,拟议的估算器是零变化的精确度估计器。我们还将NEIS的测算结果与比NEIS号的温度值与VA的测算值之间的比值降低。