Timely completion of design cycles for complex systems ranging from consumer electronics to hypersonic vehicles relies on rapid simulation-based prototyping. The latter typically involves high-dimensional spaces of possibly correlated control variables (CVs) and quantities of interest (QoIs) with non-Gaussian and possibly multimodal distributions. We develop a model-agnostic, moment-independent global sensitivity analysis (GSA) that relies on differential mutual information to rank the effects of CVs on QoIs. The data requirements of this information-theoretic approach to GSA are met by replacing computationally intensive components of the physics-based model with a deep neural network surrogate. Subsequently, the GSA is used to explain the network predictions, and the surrogate is deployed to close design loops. Viewed as an uncertainty quantification method for interrogating the surrogate, this framework is compatible with a wide variety of black-box models. We demonstrate that the surrogate-driven mutual information GSA provides useful and distinguishable rankings on two applications of interest in energy storage. Consequently, our information-theoretic GSA provides an "outer loop" for accelerated product design by identifying the most and least sensitive input directions and performing subsequent optimization over appropriately reduced parameter subspaces.
翻译:及时完成从消费电子到超声波车辆等复杂系统的设计周期取决于快速模拟原型,后者通常涉及可能相关控制变量(CVs)和关注量(QoIs)的高度空间(QoIs)与非Gausian和可能多式联运的分布。我们开发了一个模型-不可知的、瞬间独立的全球敏感分析(GSA),该模型依靠不同的相互信息来对CV对QoIs的影响进行分级。这种对GSA的信息理论方法的数据要求是通过用深神经网络替代取代物理模型的计算密集部分来满足的。随后,全球空间分析用于解释网络预测,并用于近距离设计环。作为用于询问代孕的不确定性量化方法,这一框架与广泛的黑箱模型兼容。我们证明,由套置驱动的相互信息GSA为两种能源储存应用提供了有用和可辨别的分级。因此,我们的信息-热源系统GSA提供了一种加速的、最慢的、最慢的、最慢的、后空级的参数,通过加速的、最慢的、最慢的系统化的分级化的分导,以进行加速的导航。