Epistemic Parity: Reproducibility as an Evaluation Metric for Differential Privacy

Differential privacy (DP) mechanisms are increasingly proposed to afford public release of sensitive information, offering strong theoretical guarantees for privacy, yet limited empirical evidence of utility. Utility is typically measured as the error on representative proxy tasks, such as descriptive statistics or performance over a query workload. The ability for these results to generalize to practitioners' experience has been questioned in a number of settings, including the U.S. Census. In this paper, we propose an evaluation methodology for synthetic data that avoids assumptions about the representativeness of proxy tasks, instead measuring the likelihood that published conclusions would change had the authors used synthetic data, a condition we call epistemic parity. We instantiate our methodology over a benchmark of recent peer-reviewed papers that analyze public datasets in the ICPSR social science repository. We model quantitative claims computationally to automate the experimental workflow, and model qualitative claims by reproducing visualizations and comparing the results manually. We then generate DP synthetic datasets using multiple state-of-the-art mechanisms, and estimate the likelihood that these conclusions will hold. We find that, for reasonable privacy regimes, state-of-the-art DP synthesizers are able to achieve high epistemic parity for several papers in our benchmark. However, some papers, and particularly some specific findings, are difficult to reproduce for any of the synthesizers. Given these results, we advocate for a new class of mechanisms that can reorder the priorities for DP data synthesis: favor stronger guarantees for utility (as measured by epistemic parity) and offer privacy protection with a focus on application-specific threat models and risk-assessment.