Ensemble analysis has become an important tool for analyzing and quantifying gerrymandering; the main idea is to generate a large, random sample of districting plans (an "ensemble") to which any proposed plan may be compared. If a proposed plan is an extreme outlier compared to the ensemble with regard to various redistricting criteria, this may indicate that the plan was deliberately engineered to produce a specific outcome. A variety of methods have been used to construct ensembles of plans, and a fundamental question that arises is: How accurately does an ensemble constructed by a particular method represent the entire space of valid plans -- or, if a method has an inherent bias towards particular types of plans, can this bias be identified and quantified? Recently, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a predominant tool for constructing ensembles of plans. In this paper, we focus on the MCMC method known as "ReCom," which was introduced in 2018 by the Metric Geometry and Gerrymandering Group. This method appears to produce plans with relatively compact districts compared to some other methods, and we sought to understand this phenomenon in greater detail. In order to model the basic ReCom step, we constructed large ensembles of plans consisting of two districts for two grid graphs and for the precinct graph of Boulder County, CO. We found that, to a high degree of accuracy, the sampling probability for any particular plan is proportional to an exponentially decaying function of a discrete measure that approximates the length of the boundary between the two districts in the plan. This suggests a more quantitative formulation of the observation that ReCom tends to produce relatively compact districts, and it represents an important first step towards understanding the full sampling probability distribution associated to the ReCom method.
翻译:集合分析已成为分析和量化精密测谎的一个重要工具; 主要的想法是产生一个大而随机的区划计划样本(“Commble”),可以对任何拟议的计划进行比较。如果一个拟议的计划与各种区划标准的组合相比,是一个极端的超值,这可能表明该计划是故意设计来产生一个具体结果的。已经使用了各种方法来构建各种计划,而出现的一个基本问题是:一个特定方法构建的总合如何准确地代表有效观测计划的整个空间 -- -- 或者,如果一种方法对特定类型的计划有内在偏差,那么这种偏差能否被确定和量化?最近,Markov Connel Monte Carlo(MC MC) 方法已成为构建计划组合的主要工具。在本文中,我们侧重于被称为“ReCom”的方法,这是2018年Metri Gelogetrial 和Reglender Group Group提出的一个步骤,这个方法似乎比其他方法更为紧凑凑的区划图,而Recommalial 的这一方法则是我们从两个方向上找到的两种方法。