We present a new estimator for causal effects with panel data that builds on insights behind the widely used difference in differences and synthetic control methods. Relative to these methods we find, both theoretically and empirically, that this "synthetic difference in differences" estimator has desirable robustness properties, and that it performs well in settings where the conventional estimators are commonly used in practice. We study the asymptotic behavior of the estimator when the systematic part of the outcome model includes latent unit factors interacted with latent time factors, and we present conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality.
翻译:我们提出了一个新的因果关系估计数据,其中的小组数据以广泛使用的差别和合成控制方法差异背后的洞察力为基础。与这些方法相比,我们从理论上和从经验上都发现,这种“差异的合成差异”估计值具有可取的稳健性,在传统估计值在实践中通常使用的环境中表现良好。 当结果模型的系统部分包含与潜在时间因素相互作用的潜在单位因素时,我们研究了估计值的无药可治行为,我们提出了一致性和无药可治的正常性的条件。