System-of-systems (SoS) approach is often used for simulating disruptions to business and infrastructure system networks allowing for integration of several models into one simulation. However, the integration is frequently challenging as each system is designed individually with different characteristics, such as time granularity. Understanding the impact of time granularity on propagation of disruptions between businesses and infrastructure systems and finding the appropriate granularity for the SoS simulation remain as major challenges. To tackle these, we explore how time granularity, recovery time, and disruption size affect the propagation of disruptions between constituent systems of an SoS simulation. To address this issue, we developed a High Level Architecture (HLA) simulation of 3 networks and performed a series of simulation experiments. Our results revealed that time granularity and especially recovery time have huge impact on propagation of disruptions. Consequently, we developed a model for selecting an appropriate time granularity for an SoS simulation based on expected recovery time. Our simulation experiments show that time granularity should be less than 1.13 of expected recovery time. We identified some areas for future research centered around extending the experimental factors space.
翻译:系统系统(SOS)方法经常被用来模拟对商业和基础设施系统网络的干扰,以便将若干模型纳入一个模拟中,然而,这种整合往往具有挑战性,因为每个系统都是单独设计的,具有不同的特性,例如时间颗粒。了解时间颗粒对企业和基础设施系统间干扰的传播的影响,并发现SOS模拟的适当颗粒仍然是重大挑战。要解决这些问题,我们探索时间颗粒度、恢复时间和中断大小如何影响SOS模拟各组成系统间中断的传播。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了3个网络的高级建筑模拟(HLA),并进行了一系列模拟实验。我们的结果显示,时间颗粒度和特别是恢复时间对干扰的传播有着巨大的影响。因此,我们开发了一个模型,根据预期的恢复时间为SOS模拟选择适当的时间颗粒度。我们的模拟实验显示,时间颗粒度应少于预期恢复时间的1.13。我们确定了一些未来研究领域,以扩大实验因素空间为中心。