Well-recommended methods of forming `confidence intervals' for a binomial proportion give interval estimates that do not actually meet the definition of a confidence interval, in that their coverages are sometimes lower than the nominal confidence level. The methods are favoured because their intervals have a shorter average length than the Clopper-Pearson (gold-standard) method, whose intervals really are confidence intervals. Comparison of such methods is tricky -- the best method should perhaps be the one that gives the shortest intervals (on average), but when is the coverage of a method so poor that it should not be classed as a means of forming confidence intervals? As the definition of a confidence interval is not being adhered to, another criterion for forming interval estimates for a binomial proportion is needed. In this paper we suggest a new criterion; methods which meet the criterion are said to yield $\textit{locally correct confidence intervals}$. We propose a method that yields such intervals and prove that its intervals have a shorter average length than those of any other method that meets the criterion. Compared with the Clopper-Pearson method, the proposed method gives intervals with an appreciably smaller average length. The mid-$p$ method also satisfies the new criterion and has its own optimality property.
翻译:对二进制比例形成`信任间隔'的好建议方法,提供实际不符合信任间隔定义的间隔估计,因为其覆盖面有时低于名义信任水平。这些方法优于其间的平均长度,因为它们的间隔比克洛佩普-皮尔逊(黄金标准)方法(黄金标准)的平均长度要短,其间隔期的间隔期实际上确实是信任间隔期的间隔期。这些方法的比较是棘手的 -- -- 最好的方法或许应该是提供最短间隔期(平均)的方法,但是如果方法的覆盖面太差,不应作为形成信任间隔期的一种手段进行分类?由于信任间隔期的定义没有得到遵守,因此需要为二进制比例形成间隔估计数的另一种标准。在本文件中,我们提出一个新的标准;据说符合标准的方法是产生美元(textit{局部正确信任间隔期}$。我们建议的一种方法可以得出这种间隔期,并证明其间隔期的平均长度比任何其他符合标准的方法短。与克洛佩-皮尔森方法相比,拟议方法的间隔期间隔期也具有最佳平均长度。