Causal reasoning and game-theoretic reasoning are fundamental topics in artificial intelligence, among many other disciplines: this paper is concerned with their intersection. Despite their importance, a formal framework that supports both these forms of reasoning has, until now, been lacking. We offer a solution in the form of (structural) causal games, which can be seen as extending Pearl's causal hierarchy to the game-theoretic domain, or as extending Koller and Milch's multi-agent influence diagrams to the causal domain. We then consider three key questions: i) How can the (causal) dependencies in games - either between variables, or between strategies - be modelled in a uniform, principled manner? ii) How may causal queries be computed in causal games, and what assumptions does this require? iii) How do causal games compare to existing formalisms? To address question i), we introduce mechanised games, which encode dependencies between agents' decision rules and the distributions governing the game. In response to question ii), we present definitions of predictions, interventions, and counterfactuals, and discuss the assumptions required for each. Regarding question iii), we describe correspondences between causal games and other formalisms, and explain how causal games can be used to answer queries that other causal or game-theoretic models do not support. Finally, we highlight possible applications of causal games, aided by an extensive open-source Python library.
翻译:因果推理和博弈论推理是人工智能和其他许多学科中的基础性主题,本文涉及它们的交叉。尽管它们很重要,但在支持这两种形式的推理方面缺乏正式框架,我们提出了一个解决方案,即(结构)因果游戏,它可以被看作是将Pearl的因果层级扩展到博弈理论领域,或将Koller和Milch的多智能体影响图扩展到因果领域。然后,我们考虑三个关键问题:i)如何以统一,原则性方法建模游戏中(因果)依赖关系-无论是变量之间的依赖关系还是策略之间的依赖关系?ii)如何在因果游戏中计算因果查询,并需要哪些假设?iii)因果游戏如何与现有形式主义相比较?为了解决问题i),我们介绍了机械游戏,它们编码代理人决策规则之间的依赖关系和驱动游戏的分布。针对问题ii),我们提出了预测、干预和反事实的定义,并讨论了每个假设所需的假设。关于问题iii),我们描述了因果游戏与其他形式主义之间的对应关系,并解释了因果游戏如何用于回答其他因果或博弈论模型不支持的查询。最后,我们强调了因果游戏的可能应用,并借助广泛的开源Python库。