In a sports competition, a team might lose a powerful incentive to exert full effort if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. Therefore, the organiser should reduce the probability of such a situation to the extent possible. Our paper provides a classification scheme to identify these weakly (where one team is indifferent) or strongly (where both teams are indifferent) stakeless games. A statistical model is estimated to simulate the UEFA Champions League groups and compare the candidate schedules used in the 2021/22 season according to the competitiveness of the matches played in the last round(s). The option followed in four of the eight groups is found to be optimal under a wide set of parameters. Minimising the number of strongly stakeless matches is verified to be a likely goal in the computer draw of the fixture that remains hidden from the public.
翻译:在体育比赛中,如果一个团队的最终级别不取决于仍然要进行的比赛的结果,那么团队就可能失去充分努力的强大动力。 因此,组织者应该尽可能减少出现这种情况的可能性。 我们的文件提供了一个分类计划,以识别这些微弱的(一个团队漠不关心的)或强烈(两个团队都漠不关心的)无赌注的游戏。据估计,一个统计模型将模拟欧洲足联冠军联盟的团体,并根据上一轮比赛的竞争力比较2021/22赛季使用的候选人时间表。八组中,有四个组的选项被认为在广泛的参数下是最佳的。在计算机中,将高度无赌注的匹配数目最小化被证实为可能达到的目标,即利用隐藏在公众面前的固定点。