Auto-Regressive Approximations to Non-stationary Time Series, with Inference and Applications

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range dependent non-stationary and nonlinear time series can be well approximated globally by a white-noise-driven auto-regressive (AR) process of slowly diverging order. To our best knowledge, it is the first time such a structural approximation result is established for general classes of non-stationary time series. A high dimensional $\mathcal{L}^2$ test and an associated multiplier bootstrap procedure are proposed for the inference of the AR approximation coefficients. In particular, an adaptive stability test is proposed to check whether the AR approximation coefficients are time-varying, a frequently-encountered question for practitioners and researchers of time series. As an application, globally optimal short-term forecasting theory and methodology for a wide class of locally stationary time series are established via the method of sieves.