Both buyers and sellers face uncertainty in real estate transactions in about when to time a transaction and at what cost. Both buyers and sellers make decisions without knowing the present and future state of the large and dynamic real estate market. Current approaches rely on analysis of historic transactions to price a property. However, as we show in this paper, the transaction data alone cannot be used to forecast demand. We develop a housing demand index based on microscopic home showings events data that can provide decision-making support for buyers and sellers on a very granular time and spatial scale. We use statistical modeling to develop a housing market demand forecast up to twenty weeks using high-volume, high-velocity data on home showings, listing events, and historic sales data. We demonstrate our analysis using data from seven million individual records sourced from a unique, proprietary dataset that has not previously been explored in application to the real estate market. We then employ a series of predictive models to estimate current and forecast future housing demand. A housing demand index provides insight into the level of demand for a home on the market and to what extent current demand represents future expectation. As a result, these indices provide decision-making support into important questions about when to sell or buy, or the elasticity present in the housing demand market, which impact price negotiations, price-taking and price-setting expectations. This forecast is especially valuable because it helps buyers and sellers to know on a granular and timely basis if they should engage in a home transaction or adjust their home price both in current and future states based on our forecasted housing demand index.
翻译:买主和卖主都面临房地产交易的不确定性,大约在何时和以何种成本进行交易。 买主和卖主在不知道大规模和动态房地产市场当前和未来状况的情况下作出决定。 目前的方法依赖于对历史交易的分析,以物产定价。 但是,正如我们在本文中显示的那样,仅凭交易数据不能用于预测需求。 我们根据微观家庭显示事件的数据,制定住房需求指数,以非常颗粒的时间和空间尺度为买主提供决策支持。 我们使用统计模型,利用大量、高速的房价展示数据、列出事件和历史销售数据,来制定最高达20周的住房市场需求预测。 我们用700万个个人记录的数据来进行分析,这些数据来源于以前没有在房地产市场应用过探讨过的独特、专有的数据集。 我们然后使用一系列预测模型来估计当前和预测未来住房需求。 住房需求指数应深入了解市场对住房需求的需求水平,以及当前需求代表未来预期的程度。 特别是,这些指数为当前房价估值提供了决定或市场价格预测提供重要支持,因为当前房价预测是房价预测,因此,房价预测有助于购买房价基础。