Randomized experiments (trials) are the gold standard for making causal inferences because randomization removes systematic confounding and the need for assuming any data-generating (super-population) models. However, outcome misclassification (e.g. measurement error or reporting bias in binary outcomes) often exists in practice and even a few misclassified outcomes may distort a causal conclusion drawn from a randomized experiment. All existing approaches to outcome misclassification rely on some data-generating model and therefore may not be applicable to randomized experiments without additional strong assumptions. We propose a model-free and finite-population-exact framework for randomized experiments subject to outcome misclassification, which does not require adding any additional assumptions to a randomized experiment. A central quantity in our framework is "warning accuracy," defined as the threshold such that the causal conclusion drawn from the measured outcomes may differ from that based on the true outcomes if the accuracy of the measured outcomes did not surpass that threshold. We show how learning the warning accuracy and related information and a dual concept can benefit the design, analysis, and validation of a randomized experiment. We show that the warning accuracy can be computed efficiently (even for large datasets) by adaptively reformulating an integer quadratically constrained linear program with respect to the randomization design. Our framework covers both Fisher's sharp null and Neyman's weak null, works for a wide range of randomization designs, and can also be applied to observational studies adopting randomization-based inference. We apply our framework to a large randomized clinical trial of the prevention of prostate cancer.
翻译:随机性实验(审判)是因果推断的黄金标准,因为随机性实验消除了系统性混乱,并需要假定任何数据生成(超人口)模型。然而,结果分类错误(例如测量错误或二进制结果中报告偏差)往往在实践中存在,甚至少数错误分类结果可能扭曲随机性实验得出的因果关系结论。所有现有结果分类错误方法都依赖于某些数据生成模型,因此,如果没有更多强有力的假设,可能不适用于随机性实验。我们提议一个随机性实验的无模型和有限人口特征框架,但结果分类不正确,不需要在随机性试验中增加任何额外的假设。我们框架的一个核心数量是“警告准确性”,其定义是,从测量结果得出的因果关系结论可能与实际结果不同,如果测量结果的准确性没有超过这一阈值。我们展示了预警准确性和相关信息以及一个双重概念如何能够有利于随机性实验的设计、分析和验证。我们显示,在对结果随机性观测结果的随机性实验中,可以将警报性准确性精确性框架用于随机性测试,通过大规模数据设计模型测试来进行精确性测试。我们进行深度的模型设计设计设计,我们进行深度的深度设计,从而进行精确性测试。