State space models contain time-indexed parameters, termed states, as well as static parameters, simply termed parameters. The problem of inferring both static parameters as well as states simultaneously, based on time-indexed observations, is the subject of much recent literature. This problem is compounded once we consider models with intractable likelihoods. In these situations, some emerging approaches have incorporated existing likelihood-free techniques for static parameters, such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) into likelihood-based algorithms for combined inference of parameters and states. These emerging approaches currently require extensive manual calibration of a time-indexed tuning parameter: the acceptance threshold. We design an SMC$^2$ algorithm (Chopin et al., 2013, JRSS B) for likelihood-free approximation with automatically tuned thresholds. We prove consistency of the algorithm and discuss the proposed calibration. We demonstrate this algorithm's performance with three examples. We begin with two examples of state space models. The first example is a toy example, with an emission distribution that is a skew normal distribution. The second example is a stochastic volatility model involving an intractable stable distribution. The last example is the most challenging; it deals with an inhomogeneous Hawkes process.
翻译:国家空间模型包含时间指数参数、名称状态和静态参数,这些只是点名参数。根据时间指数观测,同时推断静态参数和状态的问题是最近许多文献的主题。一旦我们考虑具有难解可能性的模型,这一问题就会更加复杂。在这些情况下,一些新兴方法已经将现有的静态参数无可能性技术,例如近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)纳入了基于概率的参数算法,以综合推算参数和状态。这些新兴方法目前需要对时间指数调参数进行广泛的手工校准:接受阈值。我们设计了一个SMC$%2的算法(Chopin等人,2013年,JRSS B),以自动调整阈值来实现无概率近似。我们证明了算法的一致性,并讨论了拟议的校准。我们用三个例子来展示了这一算法的性。我们先以两个州空间模型为例。第一个例子是微实例,排放分布是斯凯夫正常的分布。第二个例子是涉及难以控制的稳定的分布的振荡性波动模型。