考虑风险相关性的软件多风险标的控制机理研究

项目名称： 考虑风险相关性的软件多风险标的控制机理研究

项目编号： No.71201156

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学与工程

项目作者： 吴登生

作者单位： 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 研究软件风险管理的理论和方法，对提高软件开发成功率有着重要作用。面对软件风险管理的精细化要求，已有的单风险标的软件风险管理和传统项目多风险标的风险管理都难以有效管理软件风险。本项目将软件成本、进度和质量三个软件项目属性视为软件风险管理标的，提出多风险标的下的软件风险管理体系和框架。首先，考虑到软件项目的特殊性，风险标的之间存在着更为复杂的关系，研究风险标的之间的相关性机理并进行关联结构挖掘分析。其次，构建考虑进度和质量要求的软件成本估算模型，并根据估算结果进行软件成本分阶段估算和软件进度管理。最后，根据风险标的之间相关性分析结果，改进和创新多风险标的下的软件风险识别、度量、控制模型和方法。在理论研究基础上，建设一个为项目服务的软件风险数据库，并分析我国软件风险的典型特征。该项目的研究成果不仅在理论上将丰富软件风险管理的前沿研究，而且在技术和方法上为提升软件风险控制水平提供重要支撑。

中文关键词： 软件风险；多风险标的；风险相关性；风险度量；风险控制

英文摘要： It is well accepted that the uncertainties faced by software projects should be taken into account when planning and controlling the development of software systems. Over the last 30 years, risk management in software process has played an important role in software project management. With the need of elaborate management of software risk, the software risk management theory in signal risk target and general risk management theory in multi risk targets are not suitable to manage the software risk effectively. This research regards the cost, schedule and quality of software project as risk targets, and puts forward a new software risk management theory and frame by considering multi risk targets. Firstly, due to the complexity of software project, the research studies the risk correlation mechanism and mines the correlation structure among the risk targets. Secondly, the research builds an integrated software effort estimation model considering the schedule and quality of software project. Furthermore, the total software effort is divided into sub effort in each stage to manage the software schedule. Finally, according the achievement of risk correlation study, the research improves and innovates some new risk identification, risk measurement and risk control models for multi risk targets based software risk man

英文关键词： software risk；multi risk target；risk correlation；risk measurement；risk control