煤矿区复合生态系统健康智能诊断识别及调控研究

项目名称： 煤矿区复合生态系统健康智能诊断识别及调控研究

项目编号： No.41471422

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 陈广洲

作者单位： 安徽建筑大学

项目金额： 61万元

中文摘要： 煤矿区是典型生态脆弱区，开展生态系统健康的智能诊断识别研究，及时进行调控对创建绿色、和谐矿区具有重要意义。分析煤矿区生态系统的结构、功能特征，采用压力-状态-响应模型（PSR）从资源、环境、经济、社会四个方面构建健康诊断的复合指标体系，综合已有各类相关标准和规范确定指标健康标准的各等级取值阈值；运用基于人工蜂群算法优化改进的投影寻踪智能识别模型，结合D-S证据理论进行指标权重融合，给出定量健康诊断结果，及时发布系统状态警情；采用RS和GIS技术，结合环境数值模型进行网格化生态脆弱性评估。选取典型时间序列数据，运用协同学、耦合度、不确定性模型定量判断系统间的协调发展和相互耦合水平，掌握系统的动态演化规律，应用基于粒子群算法优化参数的支持向量机模型进行定量预测。设定不同发展情景，运用系统动力学方法（SD）仿真不同发展水平下对应的生态系统健康水平状态，从系统压力和生态修复角度提出矿区的优化对策。

中文关键词： 煤矿区；脆弱性；智能诊断；压力-状态-响应；情景分析

英文摘要： Taking the coal-mining area as a typical ecological vulnerability area,it is of necessity to create green and harmonious mining area carrying out intelligent diagnosis,early-warning and adjustment of regional complex ecosystem health. Firstly,we analysize the structure and characteristics of eco-system in the coal mining, use the pressure-state-response model (PSR) to construct composite index system of health diagnosis from resources,environment,economy and society,and integrate various standards and norms to decide the threshold for various standards of health. Combining with environmental numerical model, RS and GIS technologies are adopted to analyze eco-system vulnerability. Then,apply the improved projection pursuit intelligent recognition model based on the artificial bee colony optimization algorithm to carry out the quantitative health diagnosis combining with the D-S evidence theory which is used to fuse the weights,and release the status of system. Finally,aimed at the time series data,employ synergetics，coupling degree and uncertainty theory to quantitatively judge coordinated development level and coupling degree between the two subsystems, and grasp the evolution law of the system and forecast the status by support vector machine model based on particle swarm optimization; set different development scenarios,then use system dynamics to simulate the response level under different levels and put forward the adjustment countermeasures from the views of system pressure and ecological rehabilitation for the sustainable development of the coal mining area.

英文关键词： coal mining area;vulnerability;intelligent diagnosis;pressure-state-response;scenario analysis