资产价格波动与实体经济：影响机制及其动态均衡研究

项目名称： 资产价格波动与实体经济：影响机制及其动态均衡研究

项目编号： No.71473036

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 刘晓星

作者单位： 东南大学

项目金额： 65万元

中文摘要： 实体经济是资产价格得以形成的物质基础，资产价格是实体经济市场交易的货币价值表现，两者互为支撑和引导，但近年来我国资产价格的过度波动严重影响了实体经济发展。本课题运用金融事件研究方法和非线性动力复杂系统理论研究资产价格波动的内在机理及其与实体经济的关联机制；构建基于资产价格网络级联、宏观经济政策、心理预期和复杂动力系统视角的资产价格波动影响实体经济的系列传导机制模型；测度和评价资产价格波动影响实体经济的消费投资需求效应、乘数效应、市场联动效应、国别溢出效应和网络效应；结合 IS-LM-BP理论分析框架，构建资产价格波动与实体经济均衡的动态偏离与收敛机制模型，揭示资产价格波动与实体经济失衡的自我修复机制和外部校正机制，构建多环联动的资产价格波动与实体经济动态随机一般均衡模型，构建基于实体经济的资产价格波动调控体系，实现资产价格波动有效引导和驱动实体经济稳定发展的动态均衡。

中文关键词： 资产价格波动；实体经济；传导机制；效应机制；动态均衡

英文摘要： The real economy is the material basis of the formation of asset price, which is the performance of monetary value in the transaction at the real economy market .Although the real economy and the asset price support and guide each other, the development of China's real economy is severely affected by the excessive fluctuation of the asset price in recent years. This project uses the financial event study method and complex nonlinear dynamical systems theory to conduct a research on the inherent mechanism of the asset price volatility and how it affects the real economy. Besides, the project conducts a series of the transmission mechanism models about the influence of asset volatility on the real economy, which is based on the cascade asset network, macroeconomic policy, inflation and deflation, psychological expectations and complex dynamical systems. Furthermore, it measures and evaluates various effects of price volatility on consumption and investment, for instance, demand effect, multiplier effect, market linkage effect, spillover effect of countries and network effect. In addition , it takes a depth study on the mechanism of the asset price volatility and the dynamic deviation and convergence of the equilibrium of real economy，and the self-repair mechanism along with external correction mechanism of the asset price volatility and the imbalance of the real economy, combining the analysis framework of the IS-LM-BP theory. Finally, in order to realize the dynamic equilibrium of effective booting of asset price volatility and driving the stable development of the real economy, the project conducts a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model which is about the asset price volatility and the real economy, and a control system about the asset price volatility, based on the stable development of the real economy.

英文关键词： Asset price volatility;The real economy;Transmission mechanism;Effector mechanism;Dynamic equilibrium