项目名称: 讯息冲击视角下我国宏观财政调控政策对经济波动的影响机制研究
项目编号: No.71463017
项目类型: 地区科学基金项目
立项/批准年度: 2015
项目学科: 管理科学
项目作者: 饶晓辉
作者单位: 江西财经大学
项目金额: 36万元
中文摘要: 本项目基于讯息冲击视角,运用理论与实证相结合的方法,系统而深入地研究 宏观财政调控政策对我国经济波动的作用和机理。首先,在刻画特征事实的基础上,以Hansen(1985)模型框架为基准,引入讯息冲击,构建简单讯息驱动模型,分析讯息冲击引致经济波动的影响机制和效应;其次,在此基础上接着引入政府部门,在政府消费支出、资本所得税、劳动所得税等变量中,纳入讯息冲击,结合中国宏观经济数据,利用贝叶斯估计参数方法,考量讯息冲击下财政政策对居民消费、产出、就业和社会福利的动态效应;最后,进一步把财政规则和名义摩擦纳入研究体系,探究不同财政融资政府规则下财政政策的宏观经济影响效应。
中文关键词: 讯息冲击;财政政策;经济波动;贝叶斯估计
英文摘要: By means of theory and examples, this project, based on news shocks perspertive,aims to explore systematically and deeply the effect and mechanism by which fiscal policy can influence business cycle in China. First of all, on the basis of the dipiction of stylized facts, and directed by Hansen(1986) Model frame,the research introduces a simple news driven business cycle model which is constructed by leading into news shocks, to analyze the effect and mechanism of news shocks inpact on Chinese business fluctuation.Secondly, the project further introduces government sector into the model in which news shocks on government expenditure,capital tax, labour tax are considered. with Chinese macro data and using Bayesian estimation method, we anaylsie the dynamci effect of fiscal policy. Finally,we further take into account the fiscal rules and nominal frictions, and explore the effect of fiscal policy under different fiscal finance rules.
英文关键词: news shocks;fiscal policy;business cycle;bayes estimation