基于土地利用回归模型的城市地区PM2.5重金属空间变异特征及其主控因素研究

项目名称： 基于土地利用回归模型的城市地区PM2.5重金属空间变异特征及其主控因素研究

项目编号： No.41501197

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 杨孟

作者单位： 南京信息工程大学

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 在当前我国城市地区大气PM2.5重金属污染的严峻形势下，为提高健康风险评价中暴露评估的准确性，迫切需要揭示PM2.5重金属浓度的空间变异特征及其主控因素。本项目以南京市为研究区，以大气颗粒物监测和地理预测变量获取为支撑，尝试结合梯度分析和PM2.5来源解析方法、构建土地利用回归模型，模拟PM2.5中6种重金属年平均浓度的空间分布，明确其空间变异和空间自相关程度，揭示其空间趋势和小尺度空间变异，定量评价主要影响因素的效应大小和方向，探讨城乡梯度与空间趋势的一致性、风向和大型工业源对空间趋势的影响、以及道路交通源与小尺度变异的关系。研究结果有利于提高我国城市地区PM2.5长期暴露的健康效应和风险评价的准确度，并为城市PM2.5污染治理提供科学和量化的依据。

中文关键词： 城乡梯度；空气质量；重金属；地理信息系统

英文摘要： Under the circumstances of serious heavy metal pollution in atmospheric particulates in urban areas, there is an urgent need to reveal spatial variability of concentrations of heavy metals in PM2.5 and its dominating factors in these areas to increase accuracy of exposure assessment in health risk assessment. Using Nanjing as the study area, based on the air pollution measurements and geographic predictors, this project will integrate urban-rural gradient analysis and source apportionment to develop land-use regression (LUR) models, and modeling spatial distribution of concentrations of heavy metals in PM2.5. The main goals of this project are (i) to confirm degree of spatial variation and spatial autocorrelation of heavy metal concentration, (ii) to reveal its spatial trend and small-scale variation, (iii) to quantify direction and magnitude of parameter effects, (iv) to discuss the concordance between urban-rural gradient and spatial trend, influences of wind direction and large industry sources on spatial trend, and relationship between road transport and small-scale variation. The results of this project are helpful to increase accuracy of assessment of health effects and risk of long-term exposure to PM2.5, also can offer scientific and quantified basis for pollution control of PM2.5 in urban areas.

英文关键词： urban-rural gradient;air quality;heavy metal;GIS