基于多环境因子的新疆棉叶螨时空动态监测模型研究

项目名称： 基于多环境因子的新疆棉叶螨时空动态监测模型研究

项目编号： No.31460317

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 农业科学

项目作者： 戴建国

作者单位： 石河子大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 新疆地区是中国重要的产棉区，但近年来随着棉花膜下滴灌的普及以及全球气候不断变暖，棉田生态环境变得更有利于棉叶螨的发生，棉叶螨成灾的风险加大。由于缺乏科学有效的预测预报手段，很难做到灾前预防，而灾后治理难度大，成为棉花生产的一大障碍。本项目以新疆地区有代表性的早熟棉区和特早熟棉区为研究区域，以棉叶螨成灾因子和时空变化规律为研究对象，以对螨害发生时间、区域和为害程度的动态预测为研究目标，提炼棉叶螨发生、变化的问题域特征，构建螨害发生程度的预测模型，揭示在新疆特殊种植模式和气候条件下棉叶螨消长机理与因子特征，并将模型预测结果与空间数据进行叠置分析和缓冲区分析，从而建立棉叶螨发生及蔓延的时空动态模型，为实现螨害区域化分级预报提供理论依据和建模方法，为螨害防治从传统的条田分散治理走向区域性综合防治提供科学指导。

中文关键词： 农业信息化；智能决策；棉叶螨；消长规律；时空动态模型

英文摘要： Xinjiang region is important cotton-producing area in China, but in recent years, with promotion of cotton drip irrigation under plastic film technology and the continued warming of global climate, the ecological environment of cotton field becomes more conducive to cotton leaf mite, and increased risk of cotton spider mites disaster. Due to the lack of scientific and effective prediction method, cotton spider mites prevention and management is very difficult, so it has become a big obstacle of cotton production. The project study in precocious cotton-growing areas and special early maturing cotton-growing areas of Xinjiang and early-maturing cotton region as the area, with main factors associated with the cotton spider mites development and its rules as the research object, with the dynamic prediction of cotton leaf mite occurring time, regional and harm degree as the study target, refine cotton leaf mite problem domain features, then using multivariate nonlinear regression analysis method for model building and algorithm validation, for the more using model and spatial data for overlay analysis and buffer analysis, at last dynamic models of development of the cotton leaf mites occurred time and space were constructed，mite pests forecasting precision positioning and visualization were realized. The study results can provide scientific guidance for cotton leaf mite prevention from the traditional fields scattered control towards the regional comprehensive control and management, so good theoretical significance and practical value were put out.

英文关键词： agricultural informationization;intelligent decision;cotton spider mite;laws of decrease and increase;dynamic space-time model