综合污染物迁移机制和空间统计模型的土壤有机污染物空间分布预测

项目名称： 综合污染物迁移机制和空间统计模型的土壤有机污染物空间分布预测

项目编号： No.41301229

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 谢云峰

作者单位： 中国环境科学研究院

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 土壤有机污染物空间分布是认识污染物迁移规律、评价污染风险和制定相关环境决策的基础。有机污染物空间分布是多种环境过程综合作用的结果。现有的空间分布预测方法（空间插值）只是考虑了采样点浓度和空间位置信息，很难表征污染物分布的复杂性和变异性。本研究拟以某有机物污染场地为例，研究土壤有机污染物的空间分布特征，探索有机污染物空间分布特征与环境因素的关系，确定不同环境因素对污染物空间分布异质性的贡献，识别关键环境因素。基于多层次建模思路，分别运用污染物迁移模型，多元回归模型，克里格等方法，模拟不同层次的污染物空间分布变异性。集成多种模型的模拟结果，构建土壤有机污染物空间分布预测方法。期望将污染物迁移机制模型和空间统计模型的优势相结合，克服传统单一预测模型的不足，提高土壤有机污染物空间分布制图的精度。

中文关键词： 污染热点区；空间统计；地统计条件模拟；人工神经网络；布点优化

英文摘要： The spatial distribution of organic pollutants in soil is the basis of understanding the transport mechanism, evaluating the risk of contamination and developing relative environmental decisions. The spatial patterns of organic pollutants in soil were influenced by variety of environmental processes (such as diffusion, adsorption, volatilization, degradation, leaching). While mapping the spatial distribution of organic pollutants using traditional interpolation methods (inverse distance weighted, kriging, spline, et al.), only the concentration and spatial position information of the sampling point were considered, therefore, it is difficult to characterize the complexity and variability of the pollutant distribution. In this study, a site contaminated by organic pollutants was selected to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of organic pollutants in soil, to explore the relationship of environmental factor (source location, soil physical and chemical properties, climatic conditions, et al.) and the spatial pattern of soil organic pollutants, to determine the contribution of each environmental factor to the spatial heterogeneity of organic pollutants and to identify the key environmental factors. Based on the idea of multilevel modeling, pollutant transport model, multiple linear regression model

英文关键词： soil contamination hotspot；spatial statistics；geostatistical conditional simulation；artificial neural networks；sampling design optimization