台风时空点过程下海洋平台的维修策略研究

项目名称： 台风时空点过程下海洋平台的维修策略研究

项目编号： No.51509227

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 其他

项目作者： 陶山山

作者单位： 中国海洋大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 我国南海油气资源丰富，但该海域台风频发，极易产生石油平台的安全风险。台风发生前后需要评价海洋平台是否应进行维修加固，由于平台的损伤检测及维修耗资巨大且周期较长，因此必须合理安排维修节点和维修强度；而平台的损伤与台风破坏程度紧密相关，需要对台风强度的时空分布进行研究。本课题将台风视为随机点过程，而其影响下平台的维修作为伴随过程，研究台风的时空强度分布，并给出全寿命下海洋平台的最佳维修策略。研究首先基于标值点过程和空间点过程，获取台风的时间和空间强度，其中每场台风的统计参数采用多维最大熵分布表征；由于平台观测数据较难获得，故根据台风强度分布进行物模试验，获取台风与平台响应间的关系，并结合服役现状和整体可用性，建立动态损伤评价指标；针对损伤情况，构造伴随的随机维修模型，利用贝叶斯理论和模糊综合决策理论，进行最佳维修决策。本课题的研究成果可为海洋平台在恶劣环境下动态、全寿命的维修策略提供技术支撑。

中文关键词： 海洋平台；台风；随机点过程；维修策略；可用性

英文摘要： South China Sea is rich in oil and gas resources, but typhoons frequently occur in this area, and often cause threat to the security of oil platforms. Before and after typhoon passes, the assessment about which the platforms need to be repaired or not must be conducted. The damage detection and maintenance of platforms are costly and need longer period, so the node and strength of maintenance must be arrangement reasonably. The platform damage is closely related to the strength of typhoons, so it needs to study on the temporal and spatial distributions of typhoon strength. This study considers typhoons as stochastic point processes, and the maintenance of platforms under their influence is regarded as the adjoint processes. In this new perspective, the temporal and spatial distributions of typhoon strength are studied, and the optimum maintenance strategy of ocean platforms in the lifetime is presented. The temporal and spatial strength of typhoons is derived based on the marked point process and spatial process, and the statistic parameters of each typhoon are characterized by multivariate maximum entropy distributions. The observation data of platforms is hard to obtain, so the physical modelling experiment is conducted to obtain the relation between typhoons and the response of platforms. Combined with the service status and overall availability, the dynamic damage evaluation of platforms is established. Construct the concomitant maintenance models, and apply Bayesian theory and fuzzy decision-making theory, then provide the optimal maintenance decision. The study of this issue can provide the technical support of the maintenance of ocean platforms in lifetime under severe environment.

英文关键词： ocean platform;typhoon;stochastic point process;maintenance strategy;availability