多重冲击下沿海产业转移环境污染动态模拟与风险调控研究

项目名称： 多重冲击下沿海产业转移环境污染动态模拟与风险调控研究

项目编号： No.41201592

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 贺胜兵

作者单位： 湖南科技大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 沿海产业向中西部地区转移，能够增加产业承接地的GDP和财政收入，但也容易导致区域间的环境污染扩散，对中西部地区的生态环境造成持久性的影响。多区域环境CGE模型由于能够全面反映政策执行过程中的连锁反应与反馈效应, 因此能很好地模拟区域间产业转移的经济增长和环境污染效应。本项目在现有研究的基础上：（1）结合理论探讨和实地调查，分析我国沿海产业转移中环境污染扩散的动力机制；（2）探索我国动态多区域环境CGE模型中引入环境反馈因素的适宜模式及参数估算方法，构建基于八大区域的动态多区域环境CGE模型；（3）综合考虑我国沿海产业转移面临的国内外环境变化，动态模拟多重外生冲击下产业转移引致的环境污染空间扩散效应，考察环境污染对经济增长和社会福利的反馈效应；（4）在CGE分析框架中，针对不同情景提出相应的环境管制政策，模拟政策的实施效果，进而提出调控污染扩散风险的措施，以促进经济和环境的协调发展。

中文关键词： 产业转移；环境污染；模型模拟；演化博弈；环境政策

英文摘要： When coastal industries transfer to the central and western areas, they not only lead to increases in the local Gross Domestic Product and governments' fiscal revenues, but may cause environmental pollution diffusion among these regions and exert a permanent influence on the local ecological environment. Because regional environmental CGE model can reflect comprehensively the chain reaction effect and feedback effect in the course of policy implementation, it can simulate more accurately the economic growth and environmental pollution effect of the regional industrial transfer. The main contents and contributions of this project are as follows: (1) Based on theoretical research and field investigations, this project analyzes the dynamical mechanism of environmental pollution diffusion during China's coastal industrial transfer. (2) This projects investigates the potential approaches to integrate the environmental feedback factors into the dynamic regional environmental CGE model and its parameters estimation methods. This project further constructs a dynamic regional environmental CGE model covering eight main economic regions in China. (3) Taking industry environment changes both domestic and abroad into consideration, this project simulates the environmental pollution diffusion effect induced by industrial tr

英文关键词： industrial tansfer；environmental pollution；modeling；evotionary games；environmental policy