基于内生技术变化混合模型的我国低碳发展经济影响研究

项目名称： 基于内生技术变化混合模型的我国低碳发展经济影响研究

项目编号： No.71273153

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王灿

作者单位： 清华大学

项目金额： 58万元

中文摘要： 发展低碳经济正成为世界主要国家应对气候变化的战略选择。低碳转型能否帮助中国实现城市化和工业化关键阶段的跨越式发展？我国面临着对各种低碳发展政策的经济影响机理和影响幅度进行综合模拟研究的迫切需求。为此，在研究方法上既需要再现宏观经济系统对低碳政策的响应机制以考察碳排放控制的技术、经济、社会成本，又需要模拟微观经济主体的技术选择行为机制和技术创新可能性以考察低碳转型所可能带来的新经济增长点。本研究拟建立以CGE模型为基础、"硬连接"式地嵌入中国多个高耗能行业低碳技术信息、同时通过技术学习效应内生技术变化的混合模型；在此基础上，对各种低碳实现路径的影响机理进行探索，并定量模拟我国低碳发展政策的经济影响，为我国制定更科学、更有利于提高综合国力的低碳发展政策提供技术支撑。本研究在混合模型建模及其不确定性分析等方面具有理论意义，对低碳发展经济影响的模拟研究是我国低碳发展战略决策中面临的重大前瞻性问题。

中文关键词： 低碳经济；可计算一般均衡模型；混合模型；内生技术变化；气候变化政策

英文摘要： Developing low-carbon economy has become the strategic choice of major countries in the world to address climate change issues. Can low-carbon transition help China achieve the leapfrog development during the key phases of urbanization and industrialization? There is an urgent need for China to make a comprehensive simulation and evaluation on the mechanism and magnitude of the economic impacts brought by various low-carbon development policies. To realize this objective, it's requisite that the methodology should, on one hand, be able to uncover the macro-economic system's response mechanism to various low-carbon development policies, in order to evaluate the technical, economic and social costs of carbon emission control; and on the other hand, be able to simulate the micro-economic agents' technology choice mechanism and their possibilities of technology innovation, in order to measure the likely new-emerging economic growth engine brought by low-carbon transition. Therefore, this research plans to build up a hybrid model which is CGE-based, "hard-linked" with the technical details from multiple energy-intensive sectors in China, and incorprated with endogenous technological changes through learning effects. Using this model, this research intends to explore the impact mechanisms of various low-carbon develop

英文关键词： low carbon economy；computable general equilibrium model；hybrid model；endogenous technological changes；climate change policy